In my latest article about Somalia, entitled “Bye-Bye President Yusuf …” posted in Wardheernews.com and Awdalnews.com, on December 30, 2008, I wrote that the best outcome of this debacle (the resignation of President Yusuf) may be the establishment of a regional administration in Mogadishu for the Benadir Region. It may also be the best hope for Somalia, until there will be another reconciliation process, similar to the one that brought about the TFG—as remote as this possibility may be. I argued this because the utility of Mogadishu, as the capital of the State, has diminished ever since the collapse of government in 1991. The Capital has been marred by insecurity and factionalism since then. Call them warlords, radical organizations, clan militia or religious coalitions. They all come from the dominant clan in the area of the capital—the Hawiye. It is the jockeying between these groups of the same lineage for the control of Mogadishu that has failed all efforts to reinstate government in Somalia over the last two decades. It has not, therefore, been surprising that in these last two decades the task of priority for any government de jure has been restoring civil society, civil rights, governance, security and stability in Mogadishu. All efforts have gone in vain, so far.

Within the context of the clannish distribution of the human population in Somalia, the Capital happens to be situated in such a way that one clan family can lay claim to it. Hence, the clan-ridden politics of Somalia encourages the proliferation and splinters of these groups to constantly mushroom and renew themselves with new acronyms, personalities, actors and names in the constantly changing and ever so transient political arena in their attempts to gain stronger coalitions within Somalia and, therefore, power for the control of Mogadishu. The leadership of these groupings invariably hails from the same clan. To be fair to the leadership in Mogadishu, the same phenomena is observable in other parts of Somalia (i.e. Puntland, the Digil-Mirifle region and “Somaliland”, and to some extent the so-called Juba Land, the Capital of which is Kismayo. But, at least, one finds a relative sense of security, structure and stability in these other regions. The sad thing is that Mogadishu and its environ has never had the opportunity to enjoy enough stability to host the nation as its Capital, and has remained an unsafe ghost town since the collapse of government in January 1991. Thus in her letter S/23507 of 3 February, 1992, to the Security Council of the United Nations, Fatun M. Hassan, the then Charge’ d’affaires a.i., of the Somali Mission to the UN, had predicted:

”.. the USC [Hawiye]—parenthesis mine— considers Mogadishu to be its own, lock, barrel and stock for the mere reason that it lies within the clan’s territorial boundary. They have as a result driven out everybody else. So, those others who wish to return to Mogadishu when all is done and the dust has settled must do so as guests and only on USC terms”.

Notwithstanding the reality that only one clan, among the many that Somalia comprises, lays claim to the Capital, national government has always been superimposed from the top on the population of Mogadishu and its environs before the population in the area has been able to restructure itself around a regional leadership of their own choice. It has not been surprising, therefore, that each of Mr.(s) Ali khalif, Hassan Abshir and Mohamed Abdi Yusuf, Prime Ministers of the TNG, and Abdullahi Yusuf (the last President of the TFG—all hailing from the Darod clan—were ousted before the end of their term. These governments have always been imposed from the top by the international community. These governments were constituted in a cursory conference in foreign Capitals—Djibouti and Kenya, successively for the last two—the TNG and the TFG. Previous efforts to form government in Egypt and Ethiopia had failed. As if it was not already enough that Somalia is clannishly structured and clan orientation is not the basic culture in Somalia, these governments (TNG and TFG) were both structured around a darned 4.5-formula to add insult to injury in radicalizing clan politics.  In a way, this heightened clan politics was the main reason for the ouster of the former President, Abdullahi Yusuf, a month ago—December 29, 2008, to be exact. For additional review of the reasons and history that brought about the resignation of the President, one can consult my articles, “the Woes of President Yusuf of Somalia”, “A Scoop of Constitutional Crisis? Or, Politics as Usual?” Bye-Bye, President Yusuf .. Or is it, TFG?” All three were posted in Wardheernews and Awdalnews.

However, in the wake of the resignation of the President, the political situation seems to be going south rather than improve as had been expected by some quarters. The Speaker to the House of Parliament, now also Acting President, during this first month after the resignation of the President, according to the TFG Charter, contends that the election of the new President should take place in Baidoa, the make shift Capital of the TFG, to the north west of Mogadishu. The Care taker Prime Minister and the leadership of the opposition are adamant on holding a Conference in Djibouti to double up the 275-member Parliament, and to elect the new President. Of course, the government of Djibouti, and the UN, the African Union (AU) and the US, seem to be in agreement with the opposition. The position of the US is in accordance with a statement produced by the American Embassy in Nairobi. At issue is, on the one hand, the implementation of the Djibouti agreement which stipulates that the Transitional Federal Parliament should be increased from 275 to 550 to accommodate the demands of the opposition On the other hand, the Charter is at issue, in the sense that the old Parliament should ratify the Djibouti Agreement. In the end, the Speaker and his parliament have been pressured to attend the Djibouti Conference. It is not very clear whether there will be enough members of Parliament to form a quorum.

If the last two Conferences—one held in Djibouti itself and the other in Kenya—are any indication, it may take months if not years to make any fruition. If however, an assumption is made, by some, that it will conclude soon enough because an agreement is already in place between the TFG faction of the Prime Minister and the so-called Djibouti faction of the opposition (ARS), then I stand to be corrected. But, it is my strong view with the so called Asmara splinter of the ARS and the Al-Qaeda trained Al-Shabab who are still averted to the deal can turn the Conference into a long trailing quagmire, if not render it a complete failure. In addition, the Government of Ethiopia may not be in complete agreement with the Conference, if we go by utterances from the Foreign Minister, Seyoum Mesfin, who was at the airport to bid farewell to his guests—the Acting President and the Care Taker PM. In a VOA interview, Seyoum said that as the current head of the East African regional grouping, IGAD, he had urged Somalia's leaders to put aside the Djibouti accord and immediately choose a new president. "As IGAD we have pronounced ourselves that the charter must be respected in letter and spirit, because that is the only legal instrument that provides legitimacy to the transitional arrangement," said Mesfin.

But there are other reasons for which Ethiopia may be averted to the Conference to be held in Djibouti. There is a history of sorts associated with the question. The opposition of the PM and the leadership of the ARS is intimately at cahoots with the Government of Djibouti, while the Government of Ethiopia has until recently supported the TFG.  I hasten to add that, for some reason, both governments and others in the IGAD community have ganged against President Yusuf to pressure him to resign from Office before the end of his term. For now, though, Djibouti seems to be triumphant, since it has at last dismantled the TFG. That is very important for the Government of Djibouti and the opposition because the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) had replaced the Transitional National Government (TNG) in the Imbagathi Conference, which lasted for two years because of the resistance exerted by the government of Djibouti and the TNG throughout the period of the Conference.  When, finally, the TFG was formed the opposition alleged that TFG was ultimately and unilaterally crafted by the Government of Ethiopia and has maintained this view until this day. Therefore, by all indication, including the above quotation by the Foreign Minister of Ethiopia, Ethiopia is potentially averted to the success of this fourth Djibouti Conference on Somalia. The Government of Djibouti most likely, in addition to its own, represents the interest of the Arab World, spearheaded by Sudan (an Islamist State) and Egypt which has an erstwhile feud with Ethiopia over the Nile water. Ethiopia has until now represented the interests of the Western World in the sense that Somalia is a Muslim country and a member of the Arab league which can potentially turn into a state like Afghanistan, run by forces like the Taliban.  In the meantime, the remains of Somalia is no more no less than what the various parties of common interests wish to make of it. for the purpose of this paper. For the purpose of this paper, I wish to call the parties to these various interests as vultures ——does not matter whichever side emerges as the winner.

If you wish to call the position of Ethiopia versus the triumph of Djibouti, which is trying to replace the Ethiopia-supported TFG, or at least its leadership, then consider the following in parallel. The IGAD countries threatened sanctions against the TFG leadership if they fail to agree with the current Djibouti Agreement. Neither the international community nor the IGAD countries or the African Union (AU) have threatened sanctions against the leadership of “Somaliland”, despites its adamant position not to support or at least participate in, national reconciliation efforts since 1991, when it illegitimately declared independence. Despite the disagreements of many a community, in the area claimed, they have been bulldozed and lumped together under the myopic policy “Somaliland” leadership. Indeed, one can be sure that the political leaders of those communities oppose the scheming of “Somaliland” and will be participating in the imminent Djibouti Conference, as they had participated in all former efforts at reconciliation among Somalis. Consider also the irony that the leadership of the TFG may, in all likelihood, now, change hands— if it continues to exist— to the Islamists-led opposition or the so-called Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS). Yet, another irony is that the TFG leadership will be replaced—democratically, so to speak—by an opposition that has resisted  the TFG and seeks to liberate the country from the TFG, since its inception in 2004. That same opposition has all along contended that one reason they has not supported the TFG is because the TFG was formed in a foreign country—the Republic of Kenya—yet it wishes to forge another template of the TFG in Djibouti—another foreign country. Or, is it?

Indeed, by some twisted, Somali logic, Djibouti is not considered a foreign country. The Somali leadership in Djibouti hails from one of the clans in Somalia, to the extent that one of the two deputy Speakers of the Parliament hails from the same clan as does the President of Djibouti. That is why, in the end, a government constituted in Djibouti will never obtain the support of the entire Somali population which is essentially made up of feuding clans. such a government had never obtained support in two previous occasions when a government was formed in Djibouti.  May be, in line with the clan hegemony of his Issa clan in Djibouti, Mr. Ghelle, the President of Djibouti, wishes the secession of “Somaliland” to succeed, with the hegemonic Issac clan in its helm, the Darods in control of Puntland and the Hawiye in control of some part of the south. In essence, this means, not the reconstitution of the Somali government; but it means the further disintegration of Somalia for good. In addition to the above potential impediments to the success of the Conference, Puntland has just conducted its elections of the new Parliament and its President which has just culminated, and has just formed its government. It may be too soon for it to participate in a Conference that is expected to start in a few days. In the light of the above, there may be a need to adjourn the Conference to a later date. Meanwhile, this time could be used as a cooling off period, during which civil society and a system of governance shall be reconstructed in the area of the Capital, Mogadishu, and its environs. If the so-called ARS is finally willing to allocate additional, 275-member Parliament according the damned 4.5 formula, all clan groupings require time to divide their share internally, each within itself—albeit those candidates are not, up to now, available by any method, whether by clan selection or other wise.

Finally, I wish to bring this article in a slightly different note. ..As I was approaching the conclusion, this evening. I received a call from a Somali friend—Ahmed Said Enow—who said he was calling from the front yard of the Rockefeller Center in New York. As if in agreement with my mood, with no prior knowledge of what I was doing, he said that he spent some time searching for the Somali Flag among the flags of the countries of the World, normally displayed in front of the building. He said he finally realized that the flag was there, among the flags; but that he could not recognize it, since it was no longer blue, and has turned almost white from the extremes of the weather—probably since it was not replaced or taken care of for years.  He said that with the shock that over swept him; he remembered the following lyrics from an old Somali song, which translated as follows:
  
Cirkaa igu soo geddoomey           The sky has fallen over me
Bad igu gaaf wareegsan              An ocean is all around me
Talaa igu geesqalloocan              Like a corrugated horn, indecision is piercing me 
Mawjado gurxamaan dhexgalay     Thundering waves have engulfed me
Cirkaan gabbal ka arkayaa            I can only see a spot in the sky over me
Illeyn gacal loo tagaana               There is no loving one to lean on! 
Illeyn geed la cuskadana              There is not even a tree to hold to!

By Abdalla A. Hirad
Email: MHirad@aol.com

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