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Many, including myself, had at the time warned against the current dismal result in Mogadishu as the only outcome of that sham Djibouti peace, which had no solid foundation to stand on. This growing, latest flare-up of armed conflict in Mogadishu was all too predictable. The participants, especially the beneficiaries, of the Djibouti peace process had mistakenly focused on the removal of Ethiopian forces from Somalia as the only sure ingredient for peace at last in Somalia. This is why we lately keep hearing such shock-induced comments of “Ethiopians had left, why fight still?” I will tell you why! In hasty proceedings which promoted and rewarded a small sliver, out of the most of Islamist opposition groups, namely Sharif and his Djibouti wing, they formed a government in exile. A government of make-believe national unity, whose main supporters—various international institutions, such as the UN and other powers—were and still are habitual ignoramus on how to solve the Somali problem. But, one can put this whole painful fiasco, which we are witnessing in Mogadishu today, at the doorstep of then Somali prime minster Nur Ade and the Djibouti government. Nur Ade’s power trip to dethrone his nemesis, the ex-president Abdullahi Yusuf, had led him down the road of entering peace negotiations with Sheikh Sharif. For a genuine and comprehensive peace, if Nur Ade was to deliver the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to the peace table, it should have fell on Sheikh Sharif to do the same with all his colleague Islamist groups. For some reason, there was a deliberate plan to ignore and exclude the Somali men with the biggest guns, who are now breathing on Villa Somalia —the hideout of President Sharif this hour—with fingers on the trigger. A leader’s work judges him or her, for its result. Nur Ade’s miscalculation for Somalia was his own ambition to replace Abdullahi Yusuf, using the Djibouti peace negotiations. Otherwise, he would have insisted on a unified Islamist opposition as a partner to negotiate with for a real peace for Somalia. Sheikh Sharif was at least smart enough to put Nur Ade’s ambition to rest, as he won the top job for himself. Had Nur Ade won the presidency, this latest explosion of conflict in Mogadishu would have come even sooner! The result is the same, nevertheless. Despite all the lip-services paid for “open door” policy to anyone for negotiations, an irreversible, terrible suspicion and mistrust took hold against the result of the Djibouti peace in the minds of many former Islamist allies of Sheikh Sharif. Many conspiracy theories, of an international scheme to divide, pin against each other and conquer the Islamist camps, had taken root. As if to confirm the fears of his detractors, the newly crown president, Sheikh Sharif, would make his first visit, outside Djibouti, to Addis Ababa. Can you imagine such stupidity? Sheikh Sharif’s presidency, which may or may not survive its current huge difficulties, had been one of international panhandling. The beggar-in-chief would travel from one capital to another, while his office had not moved the peace-ball an inch forward at home. As a Somali nation, one would have thought Djibouti and its Somali top leaders would have known better than to be a party to a yet half-baked Somali peace agreement. These leaders should have insisted and demanded all Somali combatants represented in any peace. Instead, they once again bought the fallacy of International community imposing its own version of peace on Somalia. That said, I do not doubt at all the sincerity of our Djiboutian brothers in their even misguided efforts. What now? First, I call upon Sheikh Sharif to resign, so the bloodshed will stop. There is no point in prolonging the agony of Somali innocents. Upon Sharif’s resignation, the prime minster should start negotiations with the leaders of these Islamists for a peaceful transfer of power with no retributions on the current government members to follow. Then what? To say I am troubled by religious extremists assuming power in Somalia, as this may be imminent, would-be an understatement. Undoubtedly, this would have multiple implications for my country and people. The religious character of the Somali collective soul, of more than a thousand years, could be in terrible jeopardy. Such a nationwide institution of a particular brand, unfamiliar to my people, of Islam with a punishment emphasis and behavior-police would send shock waves to every Somali. If not moderated, this would most likely also directly challenge regional, historical Somali enemies with war. The last Somalia needs is for Ethiopia to have a moneymaking, distraction from her own internal problems and US supported excuse to deepen its tentacles in Somali affairs! On the other hand, the Somali people are desperately in need for a capable administration of their own to put all the guns under its jurisdiction. They also need Mogadishu freed from narrow clan politics, which clearly had been the case for almost two decades. I must mention here that these Islamist, all be hard-liners, had put aside the clan issue, as their top leader is from, of all places, Somaliland! I find it hilarious some of the clan-worshippers in Mogadishu have lately accused these Islamic groups as carpetbaggers (kuwa Xamar ka dagaalamaya dhulkoodi oo nabad ah ayeey ka yimaadeen, si ay Xamar u gubbaan). A funny thing to say now, for when these fighters were there to battle and bleed the Ethiopians, they were heroes to them. Sheikh Sharif, it seems, have reverted back to the phantom clannism. In a panic-ridden scramble to safe his presidency, he is making last ditch effort uses of clan rallying cry: Oh, Hawiye, Where Art Thou (Tola’ayeey, Yaa Hawiye ah)? The so called United Hawiye Elders’ organization in Mogadishu, which Sharif never bothered to disband even after the formation of national unity government which he heads, is muted. But, get this; Hawiye parliamentarian caucus is just activated. Mohammed Dheere, the former Banadir governor, is also swiftly called to Villa Somalia. Forget about this man, although Hawiye, having been the most hated leader by the Hawiye, for his close relations with Ethiopia. After all, Mohammed Dheere was then quoted as saying “welcome the Ethiopians to Somalia with milk and honey.” He was also a bosom-buddy of Abdullahi Yusuf, another one hated by Hawiye. In Mogadishu, the more things change, the more they stay the same. Anyway, a harsh government, however brutal, is better than no government at all. If Saudis can tolerate a Wahabbi government, the Somalis will for now. However, this will want these Somali Islamists to heed the following: Do not try to export to or threaten with your ideology with neighbors or the rest of the world. Do not allow Somalia to become a safe-haven for Al-Qaeda or any other terrorist groups; if you do, you will suffer the consequences. Most importantly, such will mostly cause many more Somali innocent deaths. As for the International community, it is important not to panic about hard-line Islamists’ takeover there. Patience and seeking the help of Islamic countries to have a moderating sway on Somali Islamic firebrands should be the first order. If confined to Somalia, the Somalis, my people, will show their capacity to self-correct and reclaim their heritage! In the short term, it may seem attractive for Washington to interfere and intervene on the side of Sheikh Sharif with some kind of a military support, such as air power. However, this will only make things worse, as that will make the Islamic insurgency in Somalia more radical and more than ever determined to carry on with even deadlier tactics. Facts on the ground should also be taken under consideration by Western powers. These Islamists have 90% of Southern Somalia under their belt. It is better to let the Somalis sort out the conflict. If sheikh Sharif cannot reverse the Islamist gains around his compound on his own, any support given to him at this late hour in this deadly game, by outsiders, could politically enhance his enemies. This will confirm their accusations of him and his government being puppets of foreigner powers. If, on the other hand, the Islamists take power, then Washington can better address them and make them fully responsible on their actions! Abdul-Aziz Mohammed We welcome the submission of all articles for possible publication on WardheerNews.com |
