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The Fallacy of Regional Panacea
By Mohamed Heebaan
Oct 13, 2009

Abdul Ahmed’s and Janet Britt’s(who acknowledged to have co-authored the piece or their study with him) display their enthusiasm for Somali regionalism below, when Abdul Ahmed writes,
“The international community must realize that Somali regionalism (whether it is  a virtue or a vice) must be acknowledged. It must also be a parameter to consider when devising a  policy for reconciliation and post-conflict institutional building. From policy design perspective, regionalism is an essential element to consider. US, UN and the international community must view the former Somalia  as a country that consists of  distinct and divided regions.”

Mr. Ahmed takes one step ahead and urges the US and international organizations to abandon the idea of Somalia as one country altogether, when he writes, “ It is therefore sensible for the United States, United Nations and the EU to abandon the premise of Somalia as a single monolithic entity.”

Abdul Ahmed, once more, takes one step further and puts the onus on the US and demands that America bring about the regionalism that he is proposing, and make it a fact on the ground, when he writes, “The United States in particular has a unique opportunity to treat Somalia as decentralized entities without officially affirming the country‘s dissolution.” 

It is very clear from the quotes given above that Abdul Ahmed and Co. are using every persuasion possible to have Somalia decentralized or dismembered into various regions.  And the question is, what kind of regionalism are they proposing for Somalia?
The indication we gather from the writings of Mr. Ahmed and Ms. Britt suggests that they do not want a regionalism that would work for the best interests of the Somali people, as we are going to see shortly.

There are two forms of regionalism:   

  1. Positive regionalism

  2. Destructive regionalism 

Positive regionalism is called federalism.  Every region is empowered to take care of its local and regional affairs, but on the issues of national significance such as defence, foreign policy, etc., all regions are united as one!  And it is this unity among all regions that not only safeguards the security of all regions, and of the country, but also gives the nation its place among nations.  Nearly all the developed and most powerful countries in the world, including the US, have positive regionalism or federalism.

Destructive regionalism, on the other hand, comes about if and when a country is dismembered and decentralized into various regions that are isolated from one another, and have NO coordination on the national level.

Now Abdul Ahmed and Janet Britt are NOT promoting federalism or positive regionalism for Somalia, because not even once they called for it.  And the begging question is: Why not?  If Abdul Ahmed and Janet Britt were sincere about “regional empowerment”, and “the bottom-up approach”, as they claim, federalism is the best way to achieve it.   However, as I just said, Not even once, that Mr. Ahmed and Ms. Britt called for Federalism for Somalia.  Is this an accident?  Not really.  They are not calling for federalism for Somalia because federalism will unite all Somali regions, and that unity will strengthen the will and the position of the Somali nation.

But it is very clear from their writings that strengthening Somalia is the last thing these two writers are aiming or hoping for.  And it is that very reason of not wanting to strengthen Somalia that they are proposing decentralization or destructive regionalism, where the nation’s regions are divided and dismembered into various weak, isolated, vulnerable regions that have no coordination on any level, as is the case of Puntland and Somaliland.

Now creating decentralization or destructive regionalism in Somalia creates two new realities in the Horn of Africa:

  1. By dividing and dismembering Somalia into several weak, isolated, vulnerable regions, makes Ethiopia, by default, a regional superpower!

  2. All the dismembered, isolated, and weak regions of Somalia become under the mercy of Addis Ababa, and Ethiopia effectively becomes the master of all Somali regions, as it is today the master of both Somaliland and Puntland!

It is not really that difficult, therefore, to connect the dots, and understand that Abdul Ahmed’s and Janet Britt’s advocacy for decentralization or destructive regionalism for Somalia wasn’t intended to help Somalia and its people, but to strengthen Ethiopia’s hand and position vis-à-vis Somalia.  I am not putting words into the mouths Mr. Ahmed and Ms. Britt, but it is their call for destructive regionalism of Puntland and Somaliland style that indicts and exposes them.
                               
Puntland and Somaliland

Reading Abdul Ahmed makes it feel as though Puntland and Somaliland were success stories to be emulated.  However the truth of matter is Puntland and Somaliland are not model for success, they are failure to be avoided!  True, both regions are better than Mogadishu, but that is hardly a compliment.  If your brother is a double amputee, it is foolish to see your left hand amputation as a plus!

The failures of Somaliland and Puntland can be seen from the following few points:

  1. The rift and the animosity between the two regions weakens them both, because instead of supporting one another, and becoming stronger together, they are bent on undermining one another!
  2. Politically, both regions are controlled by Ethiopia, and the elites of the two regions not only compete for the Tigrean boss’s ear, but they also work very hard to show “who is a better friend” of Ethiopia!

  3. Economically, even though both regions are very poor, and are in dire need of every dollar they could generate, they are incapable of utilizing their valuable sea ports as income generating facilities, because Ethiopia uses those ports free of charge!  Both regions give Ethiopia free-access to sea, not because they love the Tigrean regime, but because each region is so weak that the elites who run the regions feel they cannot run the risk of antagonizing the Ethiopian regime.

All those points together make Puntland’s and Somaliland’s positions continuously deteriorate, and get worse year after year,  and end up in the dead end situation the two regions are in today. 

Now if we take the advice of Abdul Ahmed III and Janet Britt, and in addition to Puntland and Somaliland establish three more decentralized, isolated, weak regions, we would have Somalia that consists of five regions, all of which are controlled by Ethiopia politically, and all of which are exploited by Ethiopia economically!

Land-Locked Ethiopia: A Bleak Future A Head

It was the great fortune of Ethiopia that its disastrous, yet unavoidable, loss of Eritrea and its coastal lines occurred while Somalia was mired by horrific civil war.  Had the loss of Eritrea took place while Somalia had an effective central government, the ramifications would have been so catastrophic for the Abyssinia that Ethiopia could have completely fallen apart.  But the situation in Somalia does not cure Ethiopia’s land-locked terminal-cancer; it only delays her day of reckoning.

Being land-locked, Ethiopia is forever at disadvantage.  And to get access to sea, Ethiopia will always be at the mercy of the Somali people!

Given the lack of allegiance to Abyssinia among Ethiopia’s various ethnic groups, who never wanted to be part of Ethiopia but was forced to do so at gun point, coupled with the crippling land-locked reality, and all the crimes the Tigrean regime have been committing against all the peoples of Ethiopia all indicate that Ethiopia, indeed, faces a dreadfully bleak future!

In the meantime, the Tigrean regime has to get a free-access to sea while it can, and as long as possible.  And nothing guarantees a free-access to sea for the land-locked Ethiopia than adopting Mr. Ahmed’s and Ms. Britt’s proposal of decentralizing Somalia into weak, isolated, vulnerable regions that, on the one hand, like Somaliland and Puntland, are at the throat of each other, while, on the other hand, consistently paying homage to Ethiopia!

Therefore if Abdul Ahmed and Janet Britt could come clean of the undeniable fact that their proposed Decentralization or destructive regionalism for Somalia was simply to serve Ethiopia’s interests, at least they would be honest!

Mohamed Heebaan
E-mail: mohamed19456@hotmail.com

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