After months of wrangling and bad blood, President Abdirahman “Faroole” Mohamed’s Puntland administration finally made public what many knew was inevitable ending its feeble relationship with the Alliance of Re-Liberation of Somalia - Djibouti wing led Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia. Puntland cited many unfulfilled promises and direct roadblocks to its internal wishes and aspirations from the TFG side and strongly warned against any extension of the TFG’s term which is set to expire in August, 2011. Furthermore, Puntland endorsed the United States new dual-track policy and urged United Nations Political Office for Somalia (UNPOS) to follow suit.

Puntland took this preemptive move after it gave up any hopes of collaboratively working with President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s TFG. The jury is out whether this is smart decision by Puntland administration not because it stands to loose any tangible benefit from the TFG but whether it will have the desired effect on the international community, particularly the UN, which created it in the first place and continue to be responsible for much of its survival. Nevertheless, this can’t be good news for the TFG at a time it can ill-afford to lose any friends or territory and it is in full-court press to project a credible image to win the support of the international community to extend its term beyond August 2011.

Since he came to power in January 2009 after the Somali Parliament was absurdly doubled to secure his eventual nomination, President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and his TFG lost control of many territories, failed to win the support of his former allies in the opposition camp, alienated many friendly groups and wasted much of his time in office with political squabbling among various interest groups within the TFG. Mogadishu residents continue to bear the brunt of the heavy shelling of AMISOM and TFG troops which are still bogged down by a fierce four years old guerilla war by Islamists that once where under the professed control of President Ahmed when he led the former Islamic Courts Union (ICU). Furthermore, there are reports that allege strong opposition of extending the TFG’s term by the African Union, most IGAD member countries, and even members of its own body. These are all indications of failure of leadership and imagination on the part of President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and his handlers who are interested more to consolidate power within the TFG rather than reaching out to adversaries and reassuring skeptical allies. With this backdrop, it is difficult to see how he could remain in power beyond the August 2011 deadline and how that serves the interest of the fast majority of Somali nationals.

Having said that, much of Somalia’s fate lately rest in the hands of the international community most of which remain oblivious to President Ahmed’s utter failures and ineptitude under the false pretense that it is the least bad option among many bad options.  Not surprisingly, it has now become fashionable to entertain possible extension of the TFG’s term beyond the August 2011 deadline.

Finally, Puntland has made clear its desire to host a genuine national reconciliation conference after the successful completion of the Somali Regional Soccer Tournaments in December on its soil. The TFG didn’t take this kindly and it now appears doubtful that such broad-based reconciliation conference in which the TFG is part off will take place in the near-future unless the international community stands firm, united and ends the TFG’s flirting with the faith of the Somali people. I won’t bet on this but the least we can do is hope and that I intend to do!

Ahmed Abdirahman
E-mail: axmedabdi@gmail.com