The Arab world, and indeed, the International community should have learned hard lessons from Somalia’s current predicament. Perchance, Somalia isn’t one-off occurrence as some pundits argued. The same scenario is being replicated in Libya.

Synonymous

Libya, like Somalia, has been ruled by a military dictator who coincidently usurped power through extra-constitutional means, in the same year of Somalia’s Siyad Barre coup d’état in 1969. Both countries were colonised by Italy, tribalism is well-grounded in both societies and institutional infrastructure is very poor. Moreover, Libya has conspicuously been involved in Somali affairs for four decades. It was part of the Soviet coalition (alongside Cuba and South Yemen) that defeated Somalia in the Ogaden War in 1977. It also funnelled money through the successive destabilising regimes of Ethiopia (Mengistu & Meles) and their affiliated Somali warlords.

Apparently Col Qaddafi, like his counterpart the late Gen Siyad Barre, is out of touch with the realities on the ground. Libya, like Somalia, is a tribally tuned society thus; tribal bonds are stronger than allegiance to national institutions. Somalia and Libya are both under populated with a roughly similar population fewer than ten million inhabitants. If Somalia was haunted by its untapped resources, Libya might become prey to its proven natural wealth, particularly the black gold (oil).

The world’s most dangerous vultures are sharpening their beaks. Recently, the neo-cons jumped the Libyan rescue ship; they urge president Obama to intervene militarily. Ostensibly, Libya is up for grabs. The West has a window of opportunity to advance their goals. May ALLAH forbid, Col Qaddafi, like our late Siyad Barre, will hand Libya to its enemies on a silver platter? If and when this intervention occurs, in the name of humanitarian crisis, the Libyans will most likely rally behind Qaddafi to fight foreign intrusion, just like Somalis did with Gen Aideed.

Somalia fell over a cliff in early 1990s when state institutions collapsed due to disorganised, tribally affiliated, insurgency that took over the capital Mogadishu, but surely aggravated by Gen Siyad’s decision to cling to power at any cost.

Idiotically, Col Qaddafi is following a similar path which will render Libya a classical `failed state`. The International community should be ready to embrace another terrorism hotspot right at gates of Europe and the Middle East. History has taught us that social upheavals in the Muslim world, often tend to create “save heaven” for violent extremism which erodes culture and religion.

Regime Change.

There is only one way of ending the current turmoil in Libya. Remove Col Qaddafi from power: Dead or alive? If the Arabs hesitate to intervene Libya militarily, others will do for them with grave consequences.

____

The writer is a Somali born independent researcher and author of many essays regarding Somali conflict. He can be reached at: benadam43@hotmail.com

_____________________________________________________________________

We welcome the submission of all articles for possible publication on WardheerNews.com
So please email your article today Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author
and do not necessarily reflect the views of WardheerNews
Maqaalkani wuxuu ka turjumayaa aragtida Qoraaga loomana fasiran karo tan WardheerNews 

Copyright © 2011 WardheerNews.com