This is in response to Mr. Mohamed Obsiye’s article entitled “The changing political landscape in the Horn of Africa”. Perhaps the author of this article which appeared on Jumhuuriye online, the mouthpiece of secessionist Somaliland, wanted to say the changing political landscape of Somalia, as there is no such change taking place in the Horn of Africa. I also presume the author is referring to the upcoming state of Southern Sudan whose capital will be Juba, or maybe Eretria which peacefully broke its long association with Ethiopia in early 1991 following a bloody long struggle. 

The political and social make-up of the two aforementioned is totally different to that of Somalia – Somaliland situation. Eretria was an Italian colony alongside Italian Somaliland until it was captured by the Commonwealth forces spearheaded by the British forces in 1941. The British continued to administer the territory under a UN mandate until 1951 when Eretria was federated with Ethiopia’s Haille Salassie as per UN resolution 390(A), which had the blessing of the US, the age-old ally of imperial Ethiopia.

The strategic importance of Eritrea, due to its Red Sea coastline and mineral resources, was the main cause for the federation with Ethiopia, which in turn led to Eritrea's annexation as Ethiopia's 14th province in 1952. This was the culmination of a gradual process of takeover by the Ethiopian authorities, a process which included a 1959 edict establishing the compulsory teaching of Amharic, the official language of Ethiopia, in all Eritrean schools. The anger and frustration felt by the Eritrean people as a direct consequence of these repressive measures eventually led to a 30-year liberation war against successive Ethiopian governments which ended with the establishment of Independent Eretria in 1991. Whilst people of British Somaliland were overwhelming in favor of joining their brethren in Italian Somaliland on June 1960, the Eritreans were annexed by Ethiopia (see the word annexation underlined above) and made the 14th province, the same way ogaden (the current Somali state of Ethiopia) was invaded earlier by the same country.  Contrary to what die-hard secessionists like this author want us to believe, the process of uniting the two colonized Somalis was planned well before the union of 1st July 1960.

Indeed, a delegation of Somalilanders consisting of politicians and technocrats had already visited Mogadishu to prepare the groundwork for the certain and upcoming union well before the independence date(s). When a delegation led by the former president of the secessionist Somaliland, honorable Mohamed Haji Ibrahim Egal (PBUH), who was also the last prime minister of the last civilian government of Somalia in the late sixties, went to London to prepare for the in-coming Somaliland independence, the then designated prime minister had stated unequivocally in an interview with the BBC Somali section that British Somaliland would join their brethren in proper Somalia.

So, the idea that former British protectorate had hastily united with Somalia is non-starter and does not stand on solid foundations. It is a fabrication by small elements within Somaliland community who always wanted to have their own fiefdom on flimsy grounds. This is why pro-secessionist party of Michael Mariama was rejected by all Somaliland people at the time.

As for the case of Southern Sudan, the struggle for equality, justice and fair distribution of the wealth of the nation on the part of southern Sudanese have become a cause célèbre. The late John Garang, who founded SPLA/M which waged Africa’s longest civil war against Khartoum government, never wanted to secede from the rest of Sudan. Unlike Eretria, Southern Sudan was never annexed by Northern Sudan. They were politically and economically marginalized. The combination of injustice meted out to South Sudanese together with political opportunists in the form of current leader, Salva kir Mayardit, supported by the West, who has their own vested interest in the region, have tilted the power of balance toward outright secession in the autonomous region only in the last decade or so. Moreover, the Darfur region’s violent civil strife allegedly orchestrated by Khartoum government in support of Janjaweed, a militia recruited from Arab Abbala tribes, did not help the matter either.  There is no such thing in Somaliland. It simply exploited the power vacuum that had arisen as a result of the collapse of the last government and the ensuing tribal civil strife in the south and central Somalia. Had Somali government not collapsed in totality, the equation of Somaliland being a separate and independent country from the rest of Somalia would never have been contemplated now.

Even the SNM, who started a clan-based armed struggle against the last regime, had no intention of seceding Somaliland from the rest of the mother country, at least by judging on their constitution. The word of secession was never uttered or mentioned anywhere in SNM’s constitution. In the Aftermath of Somali state collapse, the longest serving chairman of SNM and the current president of secessionist Somaliland proposed a power sharing arrangement between the victorious USC and SNM in the framework for a transitional government in Somalia. This is clear evidence that the idea of secession was a late comer in the political scene and was never on the cards.

I have to concur with Mr. Obsiye on one thing though: Somalia’s political landscape is changing following the failure on the part of Somalis to stop this nonsensical and never-ending crazy civil war. Although UN sponsored balkanization of Somalia through tribal enclaves is as remote as ever, the political landscape of Somalia may be changing as far as autonomous administrations/regions emerging everywhere is concerned. We have been witnessing lately the announcement of dozens or more so-called regional administrations everywhere. Three different administrations, all based in exile, were formed for Hiiraan alone. Some of the names given to such regional administrations are becoming even more ridiculous and unfamiliar to many Somalis.

“Over the past couple of months Somaliland’s foreign policy and the shifting positions of Ethiopia and Djibouti have made headlines, as did the US Dual Track Policy towards Somalia and Somaliland which similarly has generated much discussion” is another line of Mohamed’s support for the secession of Somaliland.

Well let us look and dissect this statement. As evidently reported everywhere by the press including that of Somaliland, the relationship between Ethiopia and Somaliland was very rocky ever since Ahmed Silanyo’s government came to power.  At first, Ethiopia accused the new government of not securing its long porous border with the former following the ONLF fiasco in Awdal. Consequently Ethiopia has rejected the new nominee for Somaliland mission in Addis Ababa on the basis that the relationship between the two was downgraded by Ahmed Silanyo’s government after appointing a novice and inexperienced young diplomat for the post. The political fallout between the two neighbors did not stop there. High profile ministers of Silanyo’s cabinet have been singled out and accused by the Ethiopian camp of being Al Shabab and Somaliweyn sympathizers. As for Ahmed Silanyo’s visit to Djibouti, well there was uproar in the country’s media that Ismail Omer Geelle had treated his guest of honor not as a visiting head of state but as a mere friend, or brother- in-law. Hence no signs of Somaliland flag in all the meeting venues during the visit.  So where is the evidence in support of the “shifting positions” Mohamed has described in his article in both cases? To the contrary, the so-called relationship between the two is at its lowest ebb. As for the visit of London by Silanyo, well, it is not worthwhile mentioning it, as the only welcoming crowd visible at Heathrow airport were those of Silanyo’s Kulmiye supporters. No diplomatic handshakes with government ministers or any significant official for that matter, apart from the usual Somaliland proponents.  The guy simply went to his second home in Wimbledon.

In conclusion, Somaliland has no solid and concrete case to stand independently shoulder to shoulder with the sovereign countries in the international community. In the eyes of international community, Somaliland is a non-existent legal entity; no different to Puntland, or for that matter Galmudug administration, except the latter two are willing to join their brethren when the time is ripe to do so.

 A country without international recognition is like an unemployed person; hence no credit card and no loans. Somaliland may get one or two brown envelopes stuffed with cash from friendly countries, but it will never be able to attract external investment or borrow money from the international money markets due to its legal limbo. It should, instead, concentrate on improving the lives of its long suffering citizens by going for a different plan i.e. sitting down with their brethren to form an all-inclusive government that represents all Somalis.

“It appears that the international community is now beginning to realize, in the best interest of world security, the political developments in the Horn of Africa should be accepted on their merit” Mohamed said in his article . There is no concrete evidence, again, to support Mohamed’s case apart from quotations from well-known Somaliland sympathizers such as Iqbal Jhazbhay (author of Africa’s Best Kept Secret in apparent reference to the stability prevailing in Somaliland) and Dr. J Peter Pham to name a few.

Given the fact that Somaliland has been peaceful for the best part of the last two decades, its politicians have squandered a golden opportunity to re-construct the Somali state from ashes and play a very significant role in all areas of political and civic administration, which would have brought in more benefits for their impoverished people. Instead, they stuck with Plan A i.e. the separatist agenda which lasted now for twenty years and still counting. The AU is not ready to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign entity, so is the Arab world – both of which Somalia is a full member. And the response of US and EU to the Somaliland question is: let the Africans and Arabs deal with them. So, it is dead-end.

To my fellow countrymen, twenty years is the period Germany had emerged from the darkness of destructive and devastating war to become the third most powerful economy in the world, third behind the US and Japan respectively, and the first in Europe. Surely Somaliland people have no stomach for another wasted twenty years. The prospect of this wonderful dream called Somaliland becoming a reality is as remote as ever. And the architects of this ill-fated plan must be wondering where things went wrong.

The trouble is there is no plan B on the drawing board despite the mutterings and misgivings by some politicians in the country for the doomed plan A. Ahmed Silanyo himself is believed by many to be among this disenchanted group of politicians in Somaliland. It is time for Somaliland politicians and its people to look on the other side of the coin.

Mohamed F Yabarag
E-Mail:Myabarag@yahoo.co.uk

References:

1. “Governance, the Scourge and Hope of Somalia”, by Ismail Ali Ismail.
2. “A proposal to the Somali National Movement on a framework for Transitional government in Somalia”, Wardheernews.com
3. Wikipedia

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