All eyes, pessimists and optimists,   are on Prime Minster Mohamed (Farmaajo’s) forthcoming government that is said could take Somalia to a greener pastures for the first time since the inception of the TFG in 2004. A quality government that can turn around the dismal state of the TFG in less than a year - government that will outperform the Canadian PM’s one that resigned in September after political commotion within the TFG. A lot is expected from premier Mohamed by the international community but on the contrary the Somalis have no confidence at all in the business of the TFG because it let them down so many times over the years and they have yet to see a plausible course of action that can change their heart.

The policy aggressively enforced by the international community that made appointments of men without experience and influence in Somalia’s streets for top jobs, despite their good intentions, is entirely mistaken policy - the means through which they assumed power is seen as corruption and unruly encroachment by the international community in to the internal affairs of the country. Premiers Geeddi, Nur Ade, Sharmarke and now Mr. Mohamed Farmaajo have one thing in common –   lack of any significant input in to the political life of Somalia and to repeat this same experiment all the time boarders close to insanity.

Throughout history, men that succeeded to produce durable changes spring up from within the clique that have the power cards in their hands and not from an outsider, in the case of Somalia, that can hardly recognize the faces of the veterans of the civil war that make the bulk of the TFG let alone to understand their thinking.  Premier Meles Zenawi of Ethiopia changed a secessionist communist movement (TPLF) in to a semi capitalist federalist one and President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda transformed an equally communist movement (NRA) in to a fully fledged party that believes in liberal democracy. The mutually exclusive Ethiopian and Ugandan experiences are adequate to demonstrate that Africans are robust enough to put their houses in order if they are left to mend their broken societies in their own way.  TPLF movement were not asked to share power with the DERGUE (Ethiopia’s military regime) nor was NRA branded as a bunch of communist terrorists by the US and drafted in African troops to prop the Okello-Okello regime. Why the same two regimes are denying Somalia to have its turn to sort out its problems is beyond the scope of this article. 

A chick that will grow into a cock can be spotted the very day it hatches

Before the prime minister stepped in to the political treachery of the TFG that is confined to an area of no more than 4 miles guarded by AMISOM troops as opposed to their manifesto promise, when they took office in 2009, to have functional  presence on most of the regions at this time ; was of the opinion that he will assemble a small and efficient government, that he will bypass the notorious racist 4.5 formula and select his team on the right person for the right position only,  will reshape the TFG militias in to professional national army, will eradicate corruption from the TFG, will open dialogue with Al Shabab and other Islamist insurgencies and the likes.

I think the people who follow Somalia politics will agree with the author that the ticket of the premier was decisively dealt with by the vested interests in the TFG. They made the premier go public to take back every word he aired and the subsequent power squabble between the two Sharifs clearly showed him in good time the sheepish role his office is reduced to but to the surprise of many the premier appears to have accepted the certain demotion to both his pride and to that of his office with grace.

The realities on the ground render futile all expectations of a healthy revolution that can reinvent and give a new lease of life to the frail TFG.  Notwithstanding the forceful intervention of the international community, the recent in fight between the two most powerful institutions of the TFG, is far from over but only turned down in to slow cook mode. The provisional agreement so far between the president and the speaker of the parliament is a fundamental constitutional error that is pulling the rug under the feet of the prime minister - the president and the speaker are the ones who will have the ultimate sanction on who goes on the list and thus the prime minister’s role is reduced to that of rubber stamp.

When there is no enemy within, the enemies outside cannot hurt you

The vested interests with in the TFG have drawn their battle lines on the sand and are determined to fight against any fundamental changes in the affairs of the TFG. Talking about cleaning corruption from within the TFG is like declaring war on all and that would have only been feasible if the premier has come with his own force that can counterbalance the existing status quo. At the time of this writing the TFG are fighting over a number of Haj visas the government of Sudan said to have donated to the TFG. Mr. Abdikarim, Director General, of the presidential office took over the management and distribution of the visas after a whole sale robbery was noticed – some of the visas went to relatives of the big fishes in the TFG while others were reported to have been put for sale on the market.   

The revamping of the TFG militia won’t be an easy task because seasoned warlords and their lieutenants make a lot of money out of what appears as chaos to the outsiders. The money, harvested from the chaos,   lubricates mighty machinery that has political and military muscle strong enough to keep the TFG out of their way. No one in the government can tell for sure as to how many soldiers are physically present at the frontline and due to such discrepancies a whole industry thrives on the proceeds from the disparity between the actual number of soldiers on the ground and the number on the ghost list that the TFG passes to the UNDP for funding.

The PM’s aspiration of assembling a small government can’t be rational but emotional at this stage of lunacy. Somali people will not be surprised to see that the speaker’s group spearheaded by Mr. Ibbi to keep their positions and that the president’s camp to recoup as many or even more than they lost to Premier Sharma’ark’s latest reshuffle.  Thus, the question is where the PM’s axe will fall to achieve his vision. Both camps will get support from the bloated parliament who is adamant to see that the forth coming government to reflect the wider participation of the tribes if it is intended to get their approval. By any count the PM stands alone between various interconnected camps that are hostile to change.   To make any meaningful change in this unreceptive environment the PM needs to develop prophetic miracles now and then.

The PM’s promise that he will start dialogue with the insurgents is equally laughable because the US, the financier  and sponsor of the TFG, black listed, without exception, anybody who fought in any form or shape against the TFG and the occupation forces of AMISOM -  read Somali Sanctions. The American government already made its position clear “no negotiations with the terrorists” and so will hardly lend its support to any negotiation with the insurgency as its policy is narrowly focussed on combating terrorism.

The Islamist Insurgents control the most of what is left of southern Somalia and as such are not in a mood to negotiate with what they deem as prisoners inside the AMISOM barracks.  Moreover, the    TFG institution is not committed to go that extra mile because of their personal interests and ideological differences. Realistically speaking, the dialogue with the insurgents can only be looked at after the TFG manages to capture most of the regions of Somalia but until then it is like a needle that fell into a deep well – a lot of people will come to look down the well but none will volunteer to rescue it.

The forthcoming cabinet, like their predecessors, will have no ministries for the honourable Minsters to work in, but will ostensibly be working from their bunker bedrooms in the presidential palace with no staff other than some tribal body guards.  For example, no need for fishers minister because the pirates rule the seas, no need for internal affairs minister, because Puntland and Somaliland look more like governments than presided by Sharief who resides what amounts to be a presidential bunker; no need for water and mineral resources minster, no need for Agriculture or livestock or Health ministers and because none of these institutions can reach, say Gedo, to provide service.  The only sits the government of Sharief can venture into reaching outside the premises is the AMISOM barracks so the ideal government size commensurate with the current situation shall be a government that controls not even a district.  As weird as this may sound, this presents an opportunity for the Sharief government to establish a lean, but relevant government with the only necessary cabinets.  The following ministries are the relevant one:

All the facts on the ground point to one thing and only one thing – the PM will leave behind a further degraded TFG at the end of his term in office, if he is lucky enough to make it, because there are no tools under his disposal to use to bring in any meaning full change.  
 
In conclusion Premier Mohamed has no committed partners in the TFG, but plenty of daggers lingering in the shadows waiting  to cut short his political career and I think this West African proverb  says all: “The day the monkey is destined to die all the trees get slippery."

Abdikarim Buh
Political analyst and WardheerNews contributor
E-mail:abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com

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