On July 1st, 1960 Somalia became independent with high hopes associated with the then young country; a peaceful, democratic, and internally cohesive nation was anticipated. Alas, none of these were fulfilled. Today, Somalia is engulfed by a resilient civil war, lack of infrastructure, pernicious clan system that divides more than it unites, and sheer disintegration of its nationhood. After fifty years of independence, Somalia, born out of former British and Italian Somaliland that came together as one entity, is today in a status of permanent failed state, coupled by a looming fatal disintegration - two of its regions are seeking either secession (in the case of Somaliland) or full autonomy in the case of Puntland.

Despite almost a decade of democratic governance system between 1960 and 1969, where parties and elections were as regular as they could be in any other country, the usurpation of power by a socialist inclined military regime helped undermine whatever legitimacy that there was then. 

The concept of “Cult Personality,” an alien notion to Somali tradition and customs, took hold for a while when Siad Barre became the undisputed dictator of the country. Barre’s tyranny was consequently followed by a succession of self-styled warlords and religious radicals whose militias are still one way or another wreaking havoc on the country.

The clan system that had worked seamlessly when the country did not have a modern government (because there was a system of informal leadership that maintained some sort of order and resolved conflicts) had become a potent tool to divide and manipulate the society.

The combined effects of devastating clannism (pitting one clan against another) and the 1977-78 Ethio-Somali war (Somalia lost that war) coupled with several clan-based opposition movements in the 1980s, prominent among them the Somali National Movement (SNM) effectively weakened the country’s institutions. 

By the 1980s, the highly celebrated unifying factors of [same] language, religion, and culture which until then was perceived as the architecture that cemented Somalia’s oneness could not withstand the tool of “divide and rule” in the hands of clan politicians, thus precipitating today’s resilient, or what mostly likely appears to be, a permanent failed state.

Whether Somaliland, along with Puntland, is a product coming out of the ashes of the failed Somalia state, remains to be seen.  Meanwhile, the most important issue that warrants our attention in Somaliland is the successful election which its leaders and its engaging public concluded on the fateful eve of June 26, 2010, where the long time opposition party, KULMIYE and its erstwhile Somali National Movement chairman, Ahmed Mohamed (Silanyo) won by a comfortable margin of 50 percent of all the counted votes. 

The level of credibility of the election process, especially when evaluated against the unacceptable behavior of other regional governments (Ethiopia, Djibouti, Kenya, et al) and the subsequent acceptance of the results by all three participating parties, particularly the loosing ruling UDUB party, deserves our utmost praise. 

Having said that, one is tempted to appraise the challenges and opportunities faced by the victor, president-elect Ahmed Silanyo, and the government he is about to establish.  At a reception, July 5, 2010, that  the loosing UCID party hosted for its supporters, Faysal Ali Warabe, Somaliland’s flashy [modern] politician, underlined some of the daunting broad challenges Somaliland faces, including corruption, poverty, tribalism, bad governance and a perennial conflict with Puntland.

President elect Ahmed Silanyo greeted by supporters

There are several salient challenges opportunties, some new and some old, facing the newly elected president and navigating through both courses would require careful and objective analysis of issues at hand.

Challenges

1. The Sool, Sanaag and Cayn (SSC) issues is a huge political challenge that the new president and his administration must resolve in order to attend to issues of governance and development.  Since the unilateral declaration of secession by  Somaliland (or North Western regions of Somalia) by the now-defunct Somali National Movement (SNM), which Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo chaired in the 1980s, the inhabitants of the SSC politically and legally challenged Hargaisa on its choice of breaking up Somalia into pre-colonial regions.  With the establishment of HBM-SSC political and military organs (Hoggaanka Badbaadada & Midnimada), seeking military confrontation with Hargaisa, peace and stability for Somaliland is at best illusive.
   
   
2. Whether SNM ideology will resurrect under a Silanyo administration is one more worrisome political issue for Somaliland.  In the period that the now defeated former president, Rayaale, and his predecessor and mentor, the late Mohamed Haji Ibrahim Egal, presided over the government in Hargaisa, they both downplayed the history of SNM and its contemporary political role.  If, however, Ahmed Silanyo breaths life back to SNM, which is quite possible given that his transitional team is heavily dominated by former SNM members,  not only would that complicate the question of SSC, but may instill fear in other groups in the region, thus upsetting a fragile peace and stability among the region’s clans.
   
   
3. The gargantuan  task of converting the good will associated with its enviable free and fair election into an international recognition for Somaliland statehood (as an independent and sovereign state that is divorced from Somalia, both legally and illegally) is a major challenge which the new administration, like its predecessor, faces upon coming to office.  A public that has grown weary about promises after promises by its politicians, who has closed all doors to negotiated settlements when it comes to its political marriage with the rest of the country (that is Somalia), will undoubtedly demand fast and favorable results.  This is a major challenge to achieve, given that all international instruments regulating and protecting the sovereign statehood of Somalia are against secession oriented solutions.

Somaliland presidential election on June 26, 2010

Opportunities

1. Silanyo’s Habar Tol-Jeclo heritage, which has a deep-rooted familial relationship with the northern Darod clans, is an obvious asset that, if well utilized, can minimize the raging conflict in the SSC regions.  He must reach out to the leadership of Erigavo and Las Anod, as well as the Haud regions, for a meaningful dialogue with the concerned communities.  In this regard, a three-pronged strategy should be followed: (1) invite high caliper people with integrity from the SSC communities for an early consultation; (2) a summit with the Dhulbahante and Warsangali leadership (particulary those who oppose Hargeisa’s secession agenda) should be organized; (3) Immediate results should aim at easing out conflict in the Haud region, with a policy of containment, not confrontation, as the guiding policy for the foreseeable future.
   
   
2.  Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo enjoys a paramount legitimacy that Rayaale, a former security officer in the Barre regime, never had.  He needs to cash this political capital and seek serious reforms in administration and enhance peace in the eastern regions.  Moreover, as he promised in his victory speech, he has enough political legitimacy to stamp out corruption and inefficiency in the government.
   
   
3. Given the recently world-wide good wish and appreciation as a result of the free and fair elections which propelled him to the highest office, his administration must go after bilateral aid and assistances that the West could give to Somaliland.  It is a prudent policy that the gargantuan, difficult-to-achieve international recognition must not debilitate other efforts to improve and enhance governance and create jobs in the devastated public sector. 

WardheerneNews urges the president elect Ahmed Mohamed Silanyo to form a small and efficient administration with a focused scope of curbing corruption, improving public services and infrastructure. The first steps taken by the president elect in forming task forces to advise in the plan and formation of the new administration and oversee the transitional period is a positive step forward.  

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