January 23, 2007

NEW HAVEN, Connecticut: The prime minister of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, must have been studying the magnificent successes of the U.S. pre-emptive invasion of Iraq and Israel's recent foray into Lebanon. He has clearly decided to emulate them. His argument is exactly that which was given by George W. Bush and Ehud Olmert: We must attack our neighbor because we have to keep Islamic terrorists from pursuing their jihad and attacking us.

In each case, the invader was sure of his military superiority and of the fact that the majority of the population would hail the attackers as liberators. Zenawi asserts he is cooperating in the U.S. struggle against terrorism. And indeed, the United States has offered not only its intelligence support but has sent in both its air force and units of special troops to assist the Ethiopians.

Still, each situation is different. And it is worth reviewing the recent history of the Horn of Africa, where countries have switched geopolitical sides with ease in the last 40 years.

Throughout the first half of the 20th century, Ethiopia was a symbol of African resistance to European imperialism. The Ethiopians defeated the Italian colonial troops at Adowa in 1896 and the country remained independent. When Italy tried again in 1935, Emperor Haile Selassie went to the League of Nations and pleaded for collective security against the invasion. He received no help. Ethiopia then became the symbol of Africa throughout the black world.

In the difficult genesis of the Organization of African Unity in 1963, Haile Selassie used his prestige to play a key role as intermediary between differing African states. The OAU established its headquarters in Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa. But if Ethiopia served this symbolic role throughout Africa, it also had an oppressive state machinery. And when acute famines began to plague the country in the 1970s, internal discontent mounted. In 1974, an army officer, Mengistu Haile Mariam, led a revolt against the monarchy and established a military government, which soon proclaimed itself Marxist-Leninist.

Ethiopia's neighbor, Somalia, also had a military government, under Siad Barre, which referred to itself as "scientific socialist." It had strained relations with the United States and fairly close relations with the Soviet Union. After the 1974 coup, when Mengistu proclaimed his government Marxist-Leninist, the Soviet Union dumped Somalia and embraced the larger and more important Ethiopia. So the United States embraced Somalia in turn.

To understand what happened next, a few words of ethnic analysis is needed. Ethiopia is an ancient Christian kingdom, long dominated by Amhara aristocrats. There is another large Christian group, the Tigre, who speak a different language. There are two other quite large groups — the Oromo (half of whom are Muslim) and the Muslim Somalis. In addition, at the end of World War II, Ethiopia absorbed the coastal Italian colony of Eritrea. Under Haile Selassie only the Amhara counted, and Eritrea was waging a war for independence. Without Eritrea, Ethiopia is landlocked.

Somalia was quite different. There had been two colonies — Italian Somaliland and British Somaliland. Italian Somaliland became independent in 1960, and British Somaliland was added onto it. In the 1960s, when ethnic conflicts began to plague many African states, it was commonly said that the one African country that would never know ethnic conflict was Somalia, since almost everyone in the country was ethnically Somali, spoke Somali, and was a Muslim.

People in both countries chafed under the respective dictatorships. And when the Cold War ended, neither government could survive. Both Mengistu and Barre were overthrown in 1991.

In Somalia, the "perfect" ethnic state fell apart, as clans began to fight one another. In 2006, a group called the Union of Islamic Courts took over Mogadishu and expelled the feuding clan leaders, restoring relative peace for the first time in more than a decade.

Washington saw the Union of Islamic Courts as a replica of the Taliban and allied to Al Qaeda. So did Zenawi. So Ethiopia decided to oust the union, and prop up the powerless central government that had been unable even to enter the capital city.

There we went again. Of course, Ethiopia has won the first round. But the Somalis are not welcoming the Ethiopians as liberators. The clan leaders are fighting one another again, and Mogadishu is again in turmoil.

As Israel had to withdraw from Lebanon, and as the United States is going to have to do in Iraq, so Ethiopia now has to pull back from Somalia. An Ethiopian general said Tuesday that the first troops would start pulling out immediately. The situation within Somalia will not have been improved because of its preventive attack. Preventive attacks are always a potential boomerang. Either one wins overwhelmingly or one loses badly.

Immanuel Wallerstein is the author of "The Decline of American Power: The U.S. in a Chaotic World." This article was distributed by Agence Global.