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| Somalia: What a Neatly Woven Secret Web!
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New, long-term strategic plan to serve Addis Ababa’s interest in Somalia is gathering steam. Sources highly placed in Ethiopia’s national security portfolio revealed to us of a tri-phased course, 2 of which already achieved or in progress.
In the heart of this plan was the creation of a new-type of administration in Somalia, whose task is to successfully destroy and hand-deliver its leaders (dead or alive) to Addis Ababa the Al-Shabab terrorist group. You see, the Al-Shabab group has not only been a problem in Somalia for the Ethiopians, but also in the Somali region (Ogaden) in Ethiopia.
The Ethiopians had long concluded the TFG, led by Yussuf, had not served their goals in Somalia. So, to implement this plan, a new paradigm had to be created within the TFG. New Somali allies, who would be rewarded handsomely, had to be found. Addis Ababa, in search of loyal Somali servants, had secretly been courting Somali businessmen and clan leaders in Mogadishu. A deal, contingent of a figure-head (leader) who will carry out the plan was secretly concluded. The opportunity presented itself when Nuur Ade was appointed prime minster. It took time and some-doing to convince Nuur Ade to take up the task; to be Addis Ababa’s Trojan horse into TFG.
On that occasion, over Whisky drinks, a standing Seyum Mesfin, the Ethiopian foreign minster, raises his glass in a toast and says with a smile to a sitting on a sofa Meles Zenawi “we found our Somali shiridham (Macawisle),” the source who was present tells us. This is an Ethiopian derogatory term (Somali macawislay) usually directed at the Somalis in their sights in the Ogaden.
True to his masters, Nuur Ade hit the ground running on the two first phases of the plan:
| 1 | To pick a fight with Abdullahi Yussuf in stages, which ultimately puts the Somali parliament in an irremediable trajectory of taking sides, which will then lead to an eventual downfall of the TFG? This has a dual purpose of, one, getting rid of Yussuf and his like-minded parliamentarians. Even putting the president under arrest, if not assassinate him. It would seem, however, he escapes any personal harm by unceremoniously going back to his home state of Puntland. His loyal bodyguards at Villa Somalia (presidential palace) in Mogadishu, however, are now under arrest, or will be soon. His long-time friend Mohammed Dheere, the former Mogadishu mayor, was already under the threat of the same fate. The future of loyal to the president parliamentarians also, some of them still stranded in Nairobi, will most likely not fair any better in the coming hours or days. The second purpose is to rehabilitate the parliamentarians who side with Nuur Ade into the Ethiopian plan at hand. |
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| 2 | To bring his clan brethren of the ICU on board on a fig-leaf Somali peace. Somali peace, it is not. It is a replacement by one clan entity that will do the bidding of Addis Ababa, in exchange of power delivered to them and backed—with no effort spared—by their Ethiopian masters. The “holy” two Sheriifs, leaders of Djibouti-based Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS), are in on it. To show a sign of Good will, to seal the deal with ARS, the Ethiopians had to withdraw their forces form central Somalia. That was part of the deal. Any Ethiopian forces, in or out of Somalia, will only go through the southern route from that point on. Witness the ones recently came in or out of Somalia through Gedo region window! |
When they have all their Somali assets in place, the Ethiopians will pull a trick of withdrawal, which they had announced last Friday, from Somalia.
As I write, the ICU are being Organized, armed and orientated towards the great battle ahead, which is sure to come; a battle against Al-Shabab. It will commence on the end of the year, or at the beginning of next year, as this coincides with the false Ethiopian withdrawal. It is a strategic withdrawal to stage their military forces on the southern border with Somalia, behind the Al-Shabab stronghold.
The ICU forces will go head-to-head with Al-Shabab, while the Ethiopians will come from their rear flank. Al-Shabab will be once and for all destroyed. Sheikh Shariif personally guaranteed the Ethiopians to deliver Al-Shabab’s heads on a silver platter to them!
The 275 new parliamentarians, now proposed and agreed on as an additional members were never part of the original tripartite plan, I was told. It came from the Somali side involved, and it is so appropriately—to the secret deal—meant to replace the TFG parliament altogether.
Finally, I would be remiss if I do not relay a one last nugget of information received concerning on post successful conclusion of Ethiopia’s plans for Somalia. On delivery of their enemy Al-Shabab to them, by the clan ICU, the Ethiopian government had also signed an agreement, demanded by their Somali new allies, then counter-demanded the same by the Ethiopians, that both will guarantee each other’s territorial integrity! Somalia will forfeit any claims on or support for the Somali region in Ethiopia or any other disgruntled groups within Ethiopia, while Ethiopia will make sure that Somaliland or any other region, like Puntland, of Somalia will never be recognized as independent by the African Union—the prerequisite for the rest of the world to follow!
In conclusion, the Ethiopians and the rest of the world may have a legitimate right to go after terrorists, wherever they are. No decent human being, a sincere Muslim faithful most of all, should ever shed any tears for the destruction of terrorists—especially those who hijacked the Islamic faith to create global level, great upheavals! But, Ethiopia’s ongoing plans, as explained in detail above, are not thought out through and through to their consequences: of unacceptable bloodshed, for a handful of hardcore terrorists, among Somalis. This will undoubtedly lead to a more factionalized, more chaotic and radicalized Somalis. Conversely, in Somali warfare, no one group truly wins or loses in one single blow, or two; they all live to fight another day.
If the Ethiopians fail in all this, that will only mean Somalis of all clans, regions and political stripes came together. If they do, beware of these skinny nomadic people, they will not stop at their border pursuing your soldiers. Remember, Ethiopia, as a country, is a forced amalgamation of different peoples—most of whom itch for the right time to rise up and throw the weight of Addis Ababa regime off their backs. Eritrea too will be overnight emboldened by a great defeat. There will be not enough troops to put all the fires your wrong decision in Somalia may spark!
Ababe W. Gorges
E-Mail: ababewego@live.com
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