It is really difficult to keep up with the course of events in our homeland.  The speeds by which new turns and twists, faces and facets are taking are very much worrying.  With competing local, regional and international interests, the Somalia page is indeed one of the most crowded, complex and multi layered conflicts in the world. 

Our men who are consumed by personality cults failed in every way possible to read between the lines and undermined the national interest of the country they serve.   This shows clearly the lack of understanding of governance and their inability to show more commitment to the common Somali interest and less to their self under the auspices of clan.   What we mean of being civil is not wearing a short trouser and going around speaking in tongues, it is about being able to fulfil lifelong ambitions in an ethical manner.  Thus when the self interest collides with that of the common, we know which should be put first. 

As the product of list of failings, what we have today are four men in the TFG going around as statesmen whom their plans are visibly heading towards opposing directions.  You have Yussuf who is supposedly the official head of state, Nur Cadde the PM, Madoobe Speaker of the parliament, and while that is happening we have the Sharif who I genuinely not sure about who he represents.   In order for us to begin to comprehend the chaos that followed the insanity of the Djibouti deal, we need to break the problem into small pieces. 

The problem on the surface:

The present problems could be perceived as being sparked by survival instincts.  Nur Cadde, rightly or wrongly, seems to have believed that he was about to be discharged from his duties.  This is evident from the steps he took thereafter to undermine Yussuf when the latter told him (see you in Baidao).   This was translated to - you will soon be fired.  Cadde attempted to spare himself the humiliation that would have followed.  He went back in speed to Kenya rallying support, then executing the Djibouti agreements in a hurry in a way that will alienate Yussuf.  He would not have also trusted the so called parliamentarians who their survival would have depended on finding a sacrificial lamb that would somehow have been him.  He attempted to break Yussuf’s authority and subsequent expected MPs betrayal by adding 275 of friendly supporters overriding any decisions that would supposedly been taken by existing 250 parliamentarians.

 The immediate stakeholders do not care about the particularity of such a deal, they are only concerned with closing a lengthy and energy draining chapter in a way that shapes events to their benefit.  Western backers have the growth of Islamic extremism as their main fixation.  They cannot believe their luck of finding a way of breaking the unity of the Islamist.  This deal would have overseen the fall and the irrevocable end of the UIC as an organisation.   

The problem beneath the surface:

The Islamist: While some of the TFG leaders engage in bickering, the Islamists overtake of Somalia is materialising.  The ARS engagement with the Djibouti deal, I believe is an attempt to divert the energy and the focus of the TFG personnel’s and the international community from this fact.  The current saga has been used intentionally to evoke old animosities between the warring Somali clans in a controlled manner.   If this is not the plan, how does anyone explain the lenient response by the leaders of the ARS in Asmara and also within Somalia.  Sheikh Mansuur Robow, for instance, said in a staged performance that they (i.e. al-shabaab) are willing to forgive Sharif if he abandons his plans. Meanwhile Sharif went to Mogadisho to reconcile not those who are fighting but those who are not. There are also a believe amongst some Somalis that the Sharif is mobilising clans support in Mogadisho to alienate al-shabaab.  Generally whatever his motives what we can deduce from his media addresses is that he is certainly up to no good.  He is engaging in sending conflicting messages, one for the ears of the Islamist, another for the Somali people and of course a message for Ethiopia and the international community.  To the Islamist he says that they did not go to Ethiopia but Ethiopia came to them, to Ethiopia he says we should be in peace with our neighbours, to the people he says we need peace, to the international community he talks tough against the pirates. 
 
Kenya and Ethiopia: Many of you have belittled the Annexation of Somalia by Ethiopia and Kenya saga and went to a great length to respond.  However, today I believe that that was an attempt to test the mood of the nation.  From the events that followed and the sudden U- turn against Yussuf shows that the dream to annex is being shelved temporarily.  Instead we have an attempt to divide Somalia into as many small kingdoms as possible.  By taking new sides that clearly empowers a certain clan against the rest, the intention is clear.  My worry is not that Somalis go their own way, but I feel apprehensive about the uncertainty of where this new adventure of Ethiopia and Kenya will lead us to. 

Also, it may sound unfair to some that I talk about Puntland and Somaliland but it seems to me that there are forces that are dragging them into this mess, albeit Puntland more vocally but Somaliland more discreetly. Sheikh Sharif while claiming that his main concern is reconciling Somali warring factions, made the move to meet with the so called heads of “Beelaha Isaaq” a bizarre move, but very telling.

To summarise, the TFG which is a body with no brains of its own is clearly tied together by a thread.  The Islamists are on the corner waiting for an opportunity to pounce.  The international community is waiting on our shores watching the turn of events and hoping that they get their fair share. 

In this repetitive madness that brought upon us all reconciliation fatigue and in this current climate of mistrust due to the fact that there is no one taking responsibility for the crimes that were committed against the people, I put it to you: what should be the way forward for those who want to get on with their lives?   Somalilanders have already made their wishes clear and I believe no amount of persuasion by Cismaan kaluun and company will ever change them.  But the question is what about other regions of what is left of Somaliweyn, and in this current survival call, has the time come to switch the life machine off our brain dead relative - Somaliweyn?
Warsan Cismaan Saalax

Warsan Cismaan Saalax
E-Mail:warsan2001@hotmail.com
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