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Rayale’s Visit to Washington DC: A diplomatic or a non-Event Event
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By Faisal Roble |
Jan 14 , 2008 |
News Analysis
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For some time now, the highly touted visit of Rayale, president of “Somaliland,” a region that has unilaterally declared secession, but still unrecognized, remained an enigma to both his friends and foes. At the airport, not more than four Somalis reportedly were waiting to receive him. This is a far cry from how this trip was initially promoted - a visit dealing with bilateral talks on “Somaliland’s” recognition by Washington.
According to reliable sources, including the US state Department, Rayale’s visit to the United States is a personal business. To which Somaliland Times adds, “The State Department has confirmed that about one year ago the US government received a request by Mr. Rayale for permission to enter the US for medical examination.” Not quite so. Still unclear is whether he used a Djiboutian or Somali passport.
Owing to his KGB secret service training (he was part of Barre’s notorious National Security Service-NSS), Rayale is good at outdoing his foes and keep them guessing his next move. That is exactly how he did with this none-event US visit.
Worried that he may lose his presidency to an angrier and hungrier opposition party who lost the 2003 elections by a thin-razor margin only after it was “rigged”, Rayale would not leave any stone unturned to win it again, even if it takes a large-scale inter-clan conflict.
Like in 2003, on October 15, 2007, Rayale unexpectedly ordered his militia to invade Las Anod, a Dhulbahante stronghold and a city that effectively disarmed its otherwise gun hoe residents. Despite that the city has fallen to “Somaliland’s” hand with ease, the invasion has galvanized the Dhulbahante and potentially could trigger a larger scale clan war which could prove difficult for Hargaysa to sustain. “We will defend our honor and land from our traditional rival clan until a stable national government is in place,” says a Dhulbahante intellectual and businessman in Dubai who wants to remain anonymous. A similar sentiment was first expressed by Mohamoud Qaybe who published an op-ed piece in 1994 before he converted to the secession cause.
After Las Anod's invasion, a Washington post article December 4, 2007, by Ann Scott Tyson, “U.S. Debating Shift of Support in Somali Conflict,” where a careless Pentagon [AFRICOM] official expressed rather strongly his department’s eagerness to shift policy towards “Somaliland’s” recognition, a comment the undersecretary for African Affairs, Jandey Frazer dismissed outright, added more fuel to the prospects for this conflict. Precisely so, because Rayale and his poorly informed advisors mistook this typically speculative reportage as a policy shift by the US and intensified their aggression against peaceful communities.
The arrival of Rayale in Washington on January 11, 2007, could not have come a worse time; it coincided with a renewed conflict in Las Anod. With “Somaliland” preemptively attacking clan militia, there are no known fatalities so far. However “Somaliland” media reported that 28 clan militia from the Dhulbahate side, including the cousin of Mohamed A Qaybe, former speaker of “Somaliland” parliament, have been captured by Hargaysa.
Reliable sources inform me that “Somaliland” troops could not have done this without receiving an unexpected strategic hand from a group of Ali Geri militia (Dhulbahante) who had change of hearts in the middle of the war. Analysts in Hargaysa speculate that Qaybe’s presence in Boohoodle, a town not too far from the conflict area, could be a factor in Hargaysa to have the upper hand. Qaybe himself belongs to the Wacays Aadan sub clan.
This Dhulbahante-“Somaliland” conflict has two dimensions, says an analyst who is knowledgeable about the region. In the short term, says this analyst, it pits different sub clans (pro- and against-Somaliland) within the Dhulbahante family. In the long run, however, it would grow into an open conflict between Isaaq and Harti clans in the region, possibly involving more Darood clans outside the immediate conflict area.
It is highly likely that Jandaye Frazer would meet with Rayale as part of her courteous diplomatic gesture. One can be certain that she would reiterate the official US policy that recognizes only one Somalia. The undersecretary would likely tell Rayala to stop destabilizing Somalia and take his troops out of Las Anod district. In 1998, when the late Egal met former undersecretary Susan Rice, his conversation about recognition was cut short when the secretary herself showed him a map denoting locations of different territories occupies by Isaaqs and Darood clan, respectively. One would expect that this current secretary may do the same.
Timing is bad for anyone coming from Africa to Washington and specially those preaching sectarian politics. The Kenyan lesson in the last few weeks is instructive in that politicians in sub Sahara Africa would do anything, including mayhem, destruction and death, to become what Chinua Achebe called “the big man.”
The undersecretary, who vainly spent precious time in Nairobi since this new conflict sparked in Kenya, should read Rayale and his mantra about “Somaliland” democracy like a single mother in Kansas reads between the lines of used car sales man verbiage.
Rayala would have done all of us a favor not by visiting the beltway, but by staying in the region putting out the fire he had fanned.
Faisal Roble,
Email:fabroble@aol.com
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