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Ethiopia is also counting on receiving intelligence information and air reconnaissance support from unnamed friendly country which is interested in regime change in Asmara as well. Having won the diplomatic battle, Ethiopia is holding on its guns with the hope that Eritrea may make the wrong move that justifies the implementation of Ethiopia's new military strategy. Eritrea doesn't seem to be giving that opportunity to Ethiopia at the moment, notwithstanding recurrent rhetorical threats. Top Ethiopian military officials are of the view that the battle with Somali Islamists may not yield the desired results until and unless the stalemate with Eritrea is brought to an end. "More than eighty percent of Ethiopia's military forces are currently tied to the Eritrean theater", reveals the source. Ethiopia wants to maintain a military base in Assab after ousting Issias Afworki from power. The MND is planning to redeploy 50,000 troops from the Eritrea front to Somalia as soon as the war in Eritrea is concluded. The new strategy envisages the establishment of permanent Ethiopian military bases in five strategic locations in Somalia; namely, Berbera, Mogadishu, Kismayo, Baidao and Beletwein, to enhance the long term stability in war-torn Somalia and evolve an enabling conducive environment for regional economic and political integration. According to this source, the essence of the new strategy is to overcome the prevailing "siege paranoia" in Ethiopia. As per the covert strategy contrived by Ethiopia's top civil and military officers, prominent Eritrean opposition leaders who are currently based in Addis Ababa will declare the formation of an Eritrean Government in exile soon after the outbreak of the fighting. Landlocked Ethiopia which relies entirely on other countries for shipping and receiving goods from overseas, would like to see a friendly government installed in Asmara – one that is acquiescent to Ethiopia's national interest. Between May 1998 and June 2000, Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a bitter war over a disputed border town called Badame. The fighting resulted the combined death of more than 100,000 combatants in what is often referred to Africa's first trench war that bore semblance to World War One. The unfinished war between the two belligerent countries continues to divert hundreds of millions of dollars from much needed humanitarian and development projects to military build up at a time when both countries are facing the looming threat of a large scale famine. As peaceful settlement of the conflict becomes increasingly and hopelessly unattainable and unable to move assets from the Eritrean theatre to Somalia where the Islamists are gaining the upperhand, Ethiopian military generals are venting their anger at the drawing board envisioning various battle plans, scenarios and options. _____ *Tamrat Nega is an Ethiopian freelance journalist based in Addis Ababa. He can be contacted at:tamrat.nega@gmail.com * The author has also published the following artiicle @ WardheerNews:
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