By Ali Abdulle
There is trouble brewing in the north eastern part of Somalia. The potential for massive upheaval couldn’t be greater. The scene is set for a major confrontation between Somaliland and a group known as khatumo aspiring to establish a regional structure independent of the exiting administrations in that part of the country.
Whether such a unit would be viable or agrees with the current constitutional arrangement of the federal state is irrelevant at this point in time. Those legal niceties are not even being considered by the proponents of this scheme.
At the heart of the immediate problem is Somaliland’s established argument that they have restored themselves the independence they had so willingly surrendered at the time of independence in 1960 for the greater objective of reuniting all the Somali entities in the horn of Africa.
On independence the two Somali regions namely British Somaliland protectorate and southern Somalia under the Italian trusteeship united to form the first ever independent Somali state. The act of merger was concluded, it is argued by Somaliland politicians, after 4 days of independence for “ex British Somaliland” in which scores of countries recognised it as an independent nation state only to abandon their newly gained status for the sake of Somali unity. The reasoning is that now after suffering atrocities of unprecedented scale at the hands of a harsh military dictatorship, they have decided to regain their independence. They insist that theirs is a unique case with no parallels elsewhere in Africa and by no means a secession of a rebellious province from an independent sovereign nation state.
In reality no country ever recognized an ex British Somaliland state at the time of its independence on 26 June 1960; it never even applied for recognition let alone acquire such a position. Not a single sheet of paper can be found in the archives of the UN or any country in existence at that time substantiating this assertion. But the fact that the northern politicians, in their determination to advance the merging of the two parts never even bothered to establish anything with distinct signs or vestiges of statehood is totally ignored in this debate.
And there is yet another problem. Neither is that part of the country homogenous or in agreement on separation from the rest of the country. The problem is partly the clan composition and what individual groups see as the best way to preserve their interests. The north-eastern communities are particularly opposed to be part of what they perceive as a recalcitrant enclave in which they are a minority located on its outer reaches with insignificant political representation or influence. Turkeys after all they argue, do not vote for Christmas.
Not surprisingly they joined whole heartedly an administration formed in neighbouring Eastern Somalia by a community they share close kinship bonds known as Puntland.
There is a section of Khatumo supporting constituency insisting that being part of Puntland is still relevant and must be preserved at least for the time being. But there is no denying that the majority is disappointed with Puntland. Indeed the appearance of khatumo initiative itself is seen by many as a product of the disillusionment with Puntland. And the reason for the disenchantment is not hard to find. Puntland has not only failed to deliver basic services to the local people in these regions in dire need of humanitarian assistance, but the loss of the capital of Sool region, Las Anod to Somaliland, seen as the most visible sign of humiliation for the community, actually happened on their watch. No wonder then that Puntland is at present on the sidelines of the developing crisis and the standoff between Somaliland and khatumo.
When the Khatumo phenomenon appeared into the scene it was with a huge fanfare euphoria and optimism. There was expectation that the inhabitants of Sool, Ayn and parts of Sanaag regions will be in charge of their destiny although there was realisation that lost territories to Somaliland will not be restored overnight.
The project had the full support of the Diaspora. Indeed its first major gathering happened in London, Great Britain. Khatumo appeals to the ordinary man and women in the street specially the women who turn out in large numbers for rallies and meetings as well as crucial fundraising events.
It has a populist nature going over the heads of the established traditional power brokers and appealing directly to the injured feelings of the community at large. The irony lost on Khatumo leaders is however that the programme itself is led by veteran politicians generating the inevitable cynicism that particular groups are using this campaign for their own political ends at the expense of others.
Meanwhile the juggernaut of Somaliland expansion races on unhindered. Today only Buhodle district is outside Somaliland control due mainly to its unique position and the animosity of the residents there and the neighbouring Somaliland clans based on land ownership. The military campaigns instigated by Somaliland became entangled with the bitter territorial dispute between communities along tribal lines. Successive armed assaults by Somaliland forces met with fierce resistance from a defiant local populace. But Somaliland is still hopeful that they can devise a method of bringing that district into the fold to extend their rule to the whole of the former British Somaliland area.
The question of Somaliland’s position regarding its pursuit of a separatist policy objective cannot be divorced from crisis of the whole of the country. The former regime’s disproportionate response to reversals they suffered in the battlefield at the hands of the Somali National Movement, an armed opposition operating in the north western area is well documented. Immeasurable suffering had been visited upon the local population caught up in the middle of a confrontation between opposition and government. It is no consolation to those who suffered or lost loved one that regime’s reaction was predictable and followed a long established trend of meting out severe punishment to any opposition real or imagined.
There will be no solution to the debilitating problems faced by a long suffering people and the danger Somalia poses to the region or even to the international peace unless this question is settled once and for all. It is very clear even to the Somaliland politicians that no political leadership in Somalia will contemplate any compromise vis-à-vis the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country. Puntland in particular set itself the task of resisting the country splitting up and sees no sacrifice too great to keep the country united or at any rate ensuring the north eastern part is firmly secured within the union. The deadlock in the north is therefore seen by many as a volcano rumbling underneath ready to erupt at any time without warning.
And then there is the murky and byzantine world of Somali tribal politics and the small matter of maintaining the delicate balance of power amongst Somali clans. We are still a long way off from nationhood and common destiny for all the people in the country. The suspicion that there was a secret pact between the late general aideed and the late Abdiurahman Tuur the first president of Somaliland to split the country into north and south condemning Siyad Barre’s tribe to a minority status in both the north and south of the country as a retribution to his sins is still lingering in some quarters. Whether such a conspiracy ever existed or is the product of deep mistrust fuelled by a merciless civil strife is difficult to tell.
The fact that political strategies based on clan calculations is an illusion almost surreal is lost on Somali politicians militating for a political ideology predicated on narrow tribal arguments. If we learned any lessons from the recent troubles it is the fact that no Somali clan is homogeneous or can operate as a single political entity. Indeed the most ferocious battles happened between the southern clans after the ouster of Siyad Barre’s regime. And in the far south, around the Juba River, the disagreement and violence was between related clans and is even today hampering the established regional authority there.
It is a very sad time for Somalis irrespective of their regional or tribal background who want to see the focus to be on nation building rather than futile tribal manipulations of a myopic and failed political elite in all parts of the country.
There is today a role for a nationalist, inspirational and charismatic leader to stand up and be counted. Can this leader emerge from the north eastern part of Somalia where a unremitting military campaign is not only wreaking havoc on entire sections of society but is also undermining the efforts of the whole country to emerge from the ashes of civil war and start rebuilding a modern nation state? And more importantly can this leader be the head of Khatumo initiative and its spiritual leader Mr Ali Galaydh.
A cursory glance at his background reveals rather remarkable Curriculum Vitae. His steady rise up the higher echelons of government, moving from a senior post to the next was particularly impressive eventually getting a seat in Siyad Barre’s cabinet holding a key ministerial portfolio.
His ascent up the greasy pole of government ranks however came to an abrupt halt, in the late 1980s after accusations of embezzlement of public funds followed by flight into exile after narrowly and dramatically evading capture by the security services of the then military administration.
Although it has been widely reported that the falling out between the regime and Mr Galaydh happened because of the lather’s criticism of the regime’s numerous shortcomings, his opponents, and there are many, still use those old accusations as a stick to beat him with ignoring his pleas that he was a victim of dirty tricks campaign.
After a period in exile he returned to Somali politics with a vengeance after the fall of the old order and descent into chaos and mayhem. A political street fighter never underestimated by his foes, is characterized even by his ardent supporters as complex and crafty politician with more to him than meets the eye.
Politics in Somalia is a dangerous game of conniving and skulduggery. Indeed the Somali word for politics is synonymous with cheating. Surviving let alone thriving in this environment requires great skill in the dark art of intrigue and brinkmanship.
Landing the highest job as the head of government of the Transitional National Government or TNG the precursor to the transitional Federal Government or TFG was no doubt the crowning moment of a long career in public life. The accolade former prime minister was thus added to a long list of designations accumulated over the years.
But one label that of a professor, trumps all others acquired after a number of stints in lectureship in different higher education centres in the USA. His name is hardly mentioned these days without the weighty title of professor.
Khatumo today is harried by Somaliland forces, hounding them from village to village as they try to hold a meeting with a simple objective of assessing their situation and pondering on options.
The target of this relentless pursuit is not in any doubt. Even a border outpost and the seat of the paramount traditional leader of the region, was attacked in an unprecedented and audacious operation by Somaliland forces on suspicion that it was serving as a hideout for senior Khatumo members including the leader himself, trashing the clan chief’s modest dwelling in the process.
The irony is that the professor sent signals and overtures to Somaliland on various occasions to the dismay, even despair of his supporters. But the other side ridiculed those olive branches and have military victory within their sights. Somaliland with its powerful minister of the presidency are hopeful that they can pull off what the infamous security services of the military regime failed to achieve, that of capturing the elusive professor preferably alive.
Seeing himself as a northerner but snubbed by Somaliland and averse to deal with Puntland leaders, the professor is at present running out of options.
It is therefore crunch time for the professor and even for the whole of the Khatumo mission he so skilfully fostered. Here is a question then, even a challenge. Can the leader of khatumo after suffering a string of setbacks regroup his supporters and chart a new route for his cause? An uprising in the north east will scupper any illusion of statehood for the north western part of Somalia providing an opportunity to put the unity of the country seriously back on the agenda.
After numerous flights ahead of advancing Somaliland forces can the professor stand his ground and say thus far and no further?
By Ali Abdulle
Email: [email protected]
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