Iraqi Kurds to Vote on Independence as Neighbors Send Warnings

Iraqis walk in the square in the citadel in Arbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, on September 23, 2017. (Photo credit should read SAFIN HAMED/AFP/Getty Images)

By Onur Ant, Dana Khraiche, and Selcan Hacaoglu

Iraq’s Kurds head to polls on Monday for a referendum on independence, an ambition pursued by Kurdish nationalists for more than a century that is fueling tensions in a region predominantly opposed to the move.The ballot will be held in three provinces ruled by the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq, as well as potentially in disputed areas around the oil-hub of Kirkuk. They will be asked one question — “Do you want the Kurdistan region and the Kurdistani areas outside the region’s administration to become an independent state?” — and their answer is almost certain to be “yes.”

Though that outcome wouldn’t automatically trigger secession or even immediate demands for it, the repercussions would be felt far beyond Iraq and have the potential to open up yet another Middle East conflict. More than 30 million Kurds are dispersed across the borders with Syria, Iran and Turkey, which fear that the vote will embolden secessionist movements among their own minorities.

The Iraqi Kurds’ president, Massoud Barzani, told a press conference in Erbil on Sunday that their partnership with Iraq had failed. He called for calm and said he was ready for “very long” talks with the government in Baghdad — possibly lasting years — on issues from borders to oil exports and water once votes have been counted. Iraq has declared the vote unconstitutional.

Turkey and Iran have been among the most outspoken opponents of the referendum and were among the first to act. Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported that Iranian airspace bordering the Kurdish region had been closed at the request of Iraq’s government, and that the Iranian military was conducting exercises in frontier provinces.

Turkey’s National Security Council, chaired by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, said after a Friday meeting that the Kurdish vote would have “terrible consequences” for the region. At the weekend, Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said Turkey would cooperate with Iraq and Iran, and was planning diplomatic, economic and security steps to protect its interests. Kurdish oil exports are piped to Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast.

“The risk of confrontation is big, and nobody will benefit from a new round of war,” said Kawa Hassan, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the EastWest Institute in Brussels. It would have been better for the Kurds to enter into negotiations with Baghdad, as proposed by the U.S. and the United Nations, than to hold the vote, he said.

At a recent rally of 40,000 people in Erbil, where Kurds chanted “Bye-bye Iraq,” Barzani had a defiant message for Turkey and Iran. “You have punished us for one hundred years. Are you not tired yet?” he was cited as saying by the Associated Press.

‘Not Now’

More than 98 percent of Iraqi Kurds voted for independence in a 2005 referendum, though it was arranged by activists without official approval and did not result in statehood.

Some analysts have suggested Barzani is more interested in forcing the Iraqi government to resolve long-standing arguments over territory and oil revenue than pursuing a complete split. Kurdish businessman Shaswar Abdulwahid Qadir, who has led a “Not for Now” campaign against the referendum, says it is being held to distract from domestic problems, including dire economic conditions caused by the plunge in crude prices and an influx of refugees fleeing Islamic State.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi made the same arguments in a televised speech on Sunday. Kurdistan’s troubles are a result of corruption and mismanagement, and the referendum would only exacerbate them, he said, adding his government would take steps to protect Iraqi unity.

The overwhelming majority of Iraqi Kurds “want an independent Kurdistan,” Hassan said. “The problem right now is this initiative led by Barzani hasn’t so far united Kurds, but further divided them.”

The Kurds, which make up about a fifth of Iraq’s 38 million people, have longstanding grievances against the government in Baghdad. Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons against them, displacing or killing countless members of the community. The enclave won a large degree of autonomy under the post-Saddam Iraqi constitution adopted in 2005, and nationalism has deepened since Kurdish troops, known as peshmerga, scored battlefield successes against Islamic State and brought Kirkuk under their control.

Turkey fears the independence vote could set back its own campaign to stamp out a Kurdish insurgency it’s been battling for three decades. It’s also worried about a military response from Baghdad, which could in turn trigger an exodus of Iraqi Kurds toward Turkey.

“The Turkish government is in a position to lay on the pressure,” Anthony Skinner, a director with U.K.-based forecasting company Verisk Maplecroft, said by email. “The prospect of independence would be meaningless if Turkey were to deny access to the Mediterranean.”

— With assistance by Khalid Al Ansary, and Nour Al Ali

Source: Bloomberg