Friday, March 29, 2024
Wardheer News
  • Editorials
  • Global News & Politics
  • Opinion
  • Slideshow

What is next for Al Shabab?

WardheerNews Editorial

Somalia’s militant group Al-Shabab has been thrown into confusion and is currently in deep mourning after an American drone dropped a precision-guided bomb on a convoy of its leaders, instantly killing six of its top brass including Emir Ahmed Godane who is also known as Abu Zubeyr on Monday Sept 1st. In like measure, an American drone killed the Afghan-trained Aden Hashi Farah Ayro, who was the head of the Hizbul Shabaab, an arm of the Islamic Courts Union, on the first day of May, in 2008.

Alshabab_leader_Abu AbdullahThe recent assault by the lone aerodynamic drone left an excruciating mark among Al-Shabab brethren with orphans and widows consequently looking to a future laden with absolute uncertainty and outright trepidation. While the names of the others pulverized by the drone attack remain unknown, according to American press releases, repeated Somali government press statements, and international media highlights, the killing of Emir Ahmed Godane has been profoundly mentioned repetitively beyond doubt.

Al-Shabab grew monstrous in recent years with its spate of car and suicide bombings, political assassinations, foreign incursions, stoning to death and public executions, and unprecedented propaganda instilling fear and unease inside and outside of Somalia such that neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya have been forced to partake in the fight against the dreaded group by contributing sizable military force to counter further escalation of hostilities. The scars inflicted on Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Uganda by Al-Shabab will take many years to heal.

Emir Ahmed Godane, though not mono-eyed like Taliban’s Mullah Omar, was, according to intelligence a reclusive and ruthless figure with dictatorial leadership style. During his reign of terror, Godane played a major role in taking Al-Shabab’s Jihadi brutality to the gates of Mogadishu, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Kampala.

Although Al-Shabab was successful in its recruitment strategies of youth from western countries, which included the children of Somalia elites and government officials, its first blow however, was the loss of its strong hold of the key southern port city of Kismayo on Sept. 2012, which served as Al-Shabab’s economic pipeline. Other important milestone was the internal clashes of its top leaders that resulted in the killing of key leadership figures. These clashes had weakened Al- Shabab’s morale, military might and the support of its ideology, which also provided an opportunity for AMISOM and Somali forces to gain a vast territory in Southern Somalia.

The Emir, Ahmed Abdi Godane had eliminated his rivals in the Al-Shabab movement. It started on June 2013 in Barawe when his supporters killed Ibrahim Afghani and Abdulhamid Olhaye “Moalim Burhan” as an attempt to silence them for good. Afghani was perhaps the most known Somali jihadi figure who had fought along with Bin Laden, Ayman Al Zawahiri, Mohamed Atef, and other prominent Al-Qaeda leaders in Afghanistan. Two other Al-Shabaab leaders, Hassan Dahir Aweys and Mukhtar Robow, were fortunate to have escaped from Godane’s wrath. These leaders’ only fault was that they had questioned the imperial leadership of Godane. The question is: Who are the possible successors of Godane? Here are some names:

1. Mahad “Karatee: He is ruthless and an ideologue who hails from Central Somalia. Godane had promoted him to oversee the dreaded Amniyat, Al-Shabaab’s intelligence branch and its assassination wing. Karate was very loyal to Godane and has served as the emir’s henchman. He is not popular in the terror group but, alas, that might serve him better among his colleagues in the leadership. He is a long shot but his Amniyat credentials are impeccable.

2. Ahmed Dirie: Another Godane henchman and a close advisor of the deceased emir.

3. Ahmed Dheere: The current deputy emir is one of Godane’s cronies. He was also the former Al-Shabaab Governor of the Bay and Bakool region.

4. Fouad Mohamed Khalaf “Shongole” is an Al-Shabaab scholar whose family hails from Puntland. Shongolo is known as an outspoken leader who was not afraid of Godane. He had publicly criticized Godane several years ago for hiding from the public view and not leading the group as a good emir is expected to do. What saved Shongolo from Godane’s long arm is his refusal to be part of the dissent group that opposed the emir. Now that AMISOM and the Somali army are pushing Al-Shabaab out of the south, the next battleground will be Puntland. Therefore, Shongolo’s selection might be handy.

5. Ali Mohamed Raage “Ali Dheere”: He is the public face of Al-Shabaab and its official spokesman. There are some who say that he is a lightweight and not charismatic. Others might prefer him to succeed Godane to soften the public image of Al-Shabaab.

6. Mukhtar Robow: A co-founder, a well-known Jihadi and also former deputy of emir and Spokesman. Robow, since June of last year, has been estranged from Godane. Robow is from the Bay and Bakool, a region in which most Al-Shabaab fighters come from. There are those who believe Robow has no chance of succeeding Godane because of his past alliance with Ibrahim Afghani, Hassan Dahir, and the American Omar Hammami. The current leadership may not kindly look favorably at Robow because it was handpicked by Godane. However, others think Robow is the most senior Somali jihadi now and a man wanted by the U.S. He is different from Dahir Aweys because he never surrendered to the Somali government nor was he ever engaged in a campaign maligning Godane or the movement. These qualities may help Robow become the next leader.

7. There are other figures in Al-Shabaab that might emerge as compromise Emirs . If Somalia selected in 2012 an unknown man named Hassan Sh. Mohamoud for president with no political experience, then Al-Shabaab is also capable of doing the same in the selection of their Emir. In Somalia, anything is possible including the impossible.

As the world watches Al-Shabab deal with its unplanned power vacuum, the world is also dealing with ISIS in another front. The prospects of these militant groups collaborating, merging, or simply learning from each other is a huge dilemma that faces world leaders. The fact on the street of Muslim countries remains that disenfranchised young Muslim youth around the world including the UK and America are attracted to the inclusive message that Al- Shabab and ISIS and other groups put forth. Many of the youth that joined Al- Shabab in the past felt marginalized due to social, economic and cultural issues that have contributed to their identify crises and the desire to find a cause to feel proud about.  In the US being part of a ‘Minority’ group, living in unsafe neighborhoods, coming from single parents households and wanting to belong has created a vacuum where local recruiters used to exploit. Many left thinking they were fighting to free the country from staunch enemies. Nothing has changed, now groups like Al- Shabab and ISIS are using advanced social media and stellar media tools that appeal to these youngsters. In a country with weak institution, corruption and fragile leadership, desperate Somali youth find Al- Shabab as an alternative to sometimes get their most basic needs. For the local youth, the Somali federal and regional governments have neglected them, there are no proper education systems or other activities to engage youth. Now as Al- Shabab deals with confusion, power vacuum, defections, in fighting and opposition, their need to increase the base and train the next generation of fighters will get more aggressive and more young people are in danger of their savvy appealing message to fight for the cause of Islam.

In the slags of power vacuum, ISIS which is much more barbaric and stronger than Al-Shabab is appealing to these young Muslims. ISIS may look exemplary, setting standards for Al-Shabab and other militia groups. Thus, whoever emerges as Al-Shabab’s leader in post Godane Al-Shabab may take the group to even further extremism and perhaps join the ISIS group that is waging havoc in Iraq and Syria.

WardheerNews
Email: [email protected]

 


We welcome the submission of all articles for possible publication on WardheerNews.com. WardheerNews will only consider articles sent exclusively. Please email your article today . Opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of WardheerNews.

WardheerNew’s tolerance platform is engaging with diversity of opinion, political ideology and self-expression. Tolerance is a necessary ingredient for creativity and civility.Tolerance fuels tenacity and audacity.

WardheerNews waxay tixgelin gaara siinaysaa maqaaladaha sida gaarka ah loogu soo diro ee aan lagu daabicin goobo kale. Maqaalkani wuxuu ka turjumayaa aragtida Qoraaga loomana fasiran karo tan WardheerNews.

Copyright © 2024 WardheerNews, All rights reserved

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.