Faisal A. Roble
A friend of mine sent me a reflective letter (When Silence Is Telling October 9, 2013) in which Mr. Mahmoud Gaildon briefly sketched his fears about where Somalia lies and its sealed fate as a nation of a lesser sovereignty. I read it with interest, and the letter in essence invokes a larger and badly needed national conversation; but it also came to me as a friendly confirmation of my own position that the government in Mogadishu is taking the country on the wrong course (see my article: The Somali Compact A New Deal or an Indirect Rule).
Allow me to say a couple of words about my personal relationship with Gaildon. I met Gaildon in 1976 at an occasion when his Sheikh Secondary School came to us at Hargaisa’s First July Secondary School on a visit that involved soccer games. As a vocal member of the Debating and Literary Committee (DLC) at my school, I had to interact with the leadership of the visiting school. Gaildon and I found an instant bond on patriotism and on a left leaning approach to social issues. We then briefly met in Mogadishu after Somalia was defeated in the 1977 war with Ethiopia (both of us were in Mogadishu at the time to join the budding universities). After losing contact with each other for more than two decades, we reconnected in 2004 through the now defunct pan-Somali discussion group (ISRAAC). Since then, we often agree with one another except on some minor differences on certain issues on our occasional telephonic conversations on Somalia affairs.
I talked to Gaildon last weekend while he was driving back from Minnesota. We shared our views on AMISOM (A UN mandate group of African countries comprising Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Djibouti, Kenya and Ethiopia) and IGAD (Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eretria, Southern/Sudan, and Uganda). In particular, I shared with him what I had recently learned from insiders regarding Somalia’s fate.
I too believe Somalia today is in the hands of EU, thanks to “The Somali Compact,” AU, AMISOM and IGAD. Some sincere and some others sinister, all these entities have political, security and economic interests in Somalia. I discussed my take about the EU interests in Somalia elsewhere, but I would simply confirm here Mr. Gaildon’s suspicion about AMISOM’s long term interest in Somalia.
The fact that pro-government groups have organized the Minneapolis visit by AMISOM also indicates that President Hassan Sheikh and company have jumped eagerly in bed with what they publicly called until recently the “devil.” Nothing is unusual, though, about this newly found love for AMISOM lest politics strips one what Somalis aptly call “xishod iyo xayo,” or virtues and core human decency.
The current AMISOM work program, which President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud is aggressively campaigning for funding by the UN and by other donor countries, consists of three intertwined phases that will be completed in 2025:
Phase 1 of AMISOM work program (2010-16):
Comprising of security and stabilization in Southern Somalia, this militaristic program has two overarching objectives – the defeat of AlShabab and the creation of a Somali National army. To get to this objective AMISOM administration has re-hated Ethiopian and Kenyan troops as part of AMISOM.
Villa Somalia and AMISOM have collaborated on a yet to be released map that digitizes security and stabilization plan in Sothern Somalia. The map severs/cuts off Gedo region from Jubbaland and merges it with a region whose center is Bydhabo and whose port is Barawe. Hiiraan region also gets access to the sea through a port to be created somewhere north of Jawhar.
One suspects that the AMISOM map is a clever strategy to implement what Villa Somalia calls the grand plan for undermining Jubbaland’s federal status. AMISOM may not endorse the grand plan of Villa Somalia towards Jubbaland. Suffice here to say that the joint Villa Somalia-AMISOM security map contradicts the federally sanctioned formulation of regional states and the current agreed map for Jubbaland.
Phase 2 of AMISOM work program (2016-2020):
According to Villa Somalia’s agreement with AMISOM, this phase would be a period for nation building. Currently, AMISOM is campaigning for international sanction and funding for this effort. In its bid to expand and extend its mission and time, AMISOM would like to argue that since Somalia is an African nation, a member of AU and IGADA, the forces of AMISOM are more in tune with the social, political and economic needs of Somalis. Therefore, goes AMISOM’s understandably rational argument, it needs to take charge of Somalia’s nation building phase in lieu of the UN.
If granted, AMISOM would not only help Somalia build schools, hospitals and a badly needed infrastructural reconstruction, but it will also manage Somalia transition to a system of “democratic” governance.
Despite good intentions on the part of AMISOM partners and indeed African brothers, this is a very challenging proposition. With the exception of Kenya, none of the AMISOM countries has any mentionable democratic culture.
Alas, as the elder of the pack, Yoweri Musavini of Uganda, for example, is the godfather of the infamous “One Dominant Party Rule,” an ideology that is also borrowed by Ethiopia, Burundi and Rwanda, and Djibouti to an extent.
Sultan Ali Safi, a sage Somali from the Qoraxay region, once said to the late Emperor Haile Selassie in 1948 in response to the emperor’s naïve insistence on educating Somalis in Amharic, “Why would you worry teach us Amharic when we already know English, Italian and Arabic,” or war maxaad Afxabashi nabari ankaaba ingress, talyaani iyo carabiba naqaane”. Many Somalis must be saying: why would AMISOM worry about teaching Somalis the virtues of democratic governance when the countries that contributed the troops themselves don’t practice democratic virtues in their own countries? Such is the confusing tale of Somalia in the year 2013.
Phase 3 of AMISOM work program (2020-2025):
This phase is what military planners call exit period (xamaan gurasho). AMISOM does not have an exit strategy yet. However, the one that is yet to evolve has so far its building blocks in place including time frame extending up to 2025, deliverables by way of nation building, and preliminary budget figures.
Although not certain, it is anticipated that by 2025 Somalia could be out of AMISOM jurisdiction and regain its sovereignty. Until then, given the multiple layers of authorities (EU, IGAD, AMISOM, and Turkey) that have a say on the affairs of the country, Somalia would virtually be under a complicated and complex system of rule, something akin to the 19th century “indirect rule.”
Who to blame? Gaildon would like to answer this way: “No matter how troubling that is, our wrath as Somalis should be directed at those of us that enable foreigners to determine our destiny: leaders, both national and regional, with no imagination, no vision, no love of country and nation, and no courage; leaders, both national and regional, that are no more than mere tools in the grand foreign design to control and dominate Somalia.” By using nomenclatures like foreign tools, Gaildon evades the mentioning of the culprits in this sad saga of Somalia.
The reasons why Somalia is in its current state of affairs are many, some historical, some sociopolitical retardation of its middle class, thus its complicated to discuss them here.
But let us go back to August, 2012 to focus our discussion to the most recent opportunities we seem to have missed: In August 2012, Somalis finally completed the long awaited Provisional Federal Constitution (PFC); they seated a new and practically needed parliament through a proxy election; Hassan Sheikh Mahamoud was elected with an unprecedented enthusiasm, albeit with no known national or local contribution that he ever made; the President of Puntland, Abdiraham Farole, paid a highly welcomed visit to Mogadishu and did not even raise an issue with his “illegally occupied house”; Jubbaland stays liberated from AlShabab; Somaliland showed signs of willingness to negotiate, and Khatumo leadership found a highly anticipated role in reimaging the reunification process of Somalia. The month of August (2012) seemed an august beginning for Somalia.
Where did all the hopeful signs for recovery go? They have all been smoked up by Villa Somalia. In less than a year Somalia went back to the 1991 civil strife scene. Jubbaland has returned to become by design a bastion for conflict; Villa Somalia is responsible because it created wedge between brotherly clans as opposed to uniting them. Not less important is the executive branch of the country drags, distorts and delays the implementation of key provisions of the PFC. (for a good critic, see Osman Hassan’s To Save Somalia Unity Save it from its President; Wardheernews.com)
Gains in security which the country has been marking for some time now are being lost. The powerful and cult-based Dam-al Jadid leaders, who according to sources close to AMISOM officials protect AlShabab, are pushing out competent professionals. The prevailing assumption among diplomats and regional governments is that Villa Somali does not want to see AlShabab being decimated beyond return.
There is a marked fear today that AlShabab has regrouped and reenergized itself since Hassan Sheikh took office. Its reach has extended to neighboring countries as evidenced by the recent attack on Kenya’s Westgate Mall. It has also vowed to attack Uganda. As painful as this may sound, all the operations by AlShabab are conceived, financed and finalized in Mogadishu and/or Barawe.
Moreover, in August of 2013, Puntland has suspended its relationship with Mogadishu citing many of the factors we listed so far. If things don’t improve, Jubbaland could join company with Puntland and sever relationship with Mogadishu; Khatumo may emerged as the most vocal opposition group in the northeast, and the Bay region could easily play spoiler’s politics.
One year later since Hassan Sheikh became the President, it is as if the country has experienced a reversal of fortune only to drift farther and speedily sink to the dark abyss of hopelessness, anarchy and terrorism.
By way of conclusion, I would like to extend a public invitation to my good friend Gaildon and others (including to others who want to see a sovereign Somalia that is at peace with itself) start deliberating on what to do next. One big idea that I would like us to ponder has the following elements:
1. Rebuild Somalia from the stable regions, and we need to accept the permanence of regional governments as a byproduct of post Barre political reality on the ground, while aggressively pacifying Southern Somalia. In particular, we need to quickly pacify Mogadishu, Barawe and Gedo with the help of an inclusive Somali army helped and trained by international entities.
2. Give AMSIOM a very stringent timeline and a mandate that does not include nation building. We have to have a national consensus that (a) mandates AMISOM to pacify only Southern Somalia in no more than 2 years, and (b) carry out its mandate within the confines of the PFC.
3. Bring together the leaders of tripartite + three that is Mogadishu, Puntland and Jubbaland (plus Khatumo, Bay and Galmudug) as the first building blocks of a peaceful federal Somalia that is free from AMISOM by election time in 2016. This group can be expanded when after a consensus is reached on the big picture.
Faisal A. Roble
Email:[email protected]
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Note: Timeline for sovereign and non-sovereign Somalia
- 1949-1960 – United Nation Trusteeship for Somalia (11 years)
- 1960-1991 – Sovereign state of Somalia Democratic Republic (31 years)
- 1991-2007 – Warlords rule and unregulated Interventions (16 years)
- 2007-2025 – AMISOM (potential) presence in Somalia (18 years)
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