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The Rise and Fall of Damul Jadiid‏

By Ali Abdulle

Damul Jadiid is in trouble. No doubt about that. It is difficult to see how it can survive as a viable political organisation or even as an idea after the current crisis at the heart of the Somali state.

As a little known splinter group from the wider Al-Islah movement, regarded as the Somali chapter of Egypian Muslim Brotherhood, they have actually done rather well, landing the highest office in the land, the presidency itself. Indeed the term Damul Jadiid was unheard of by the overwhelming majority of the people prior to the current president winning the top job ahead of a permanent and internationally recognized state. But despite this crucial victory their main problem is and has been a lack of coherent ideological grounding based on core principles from where grand political strategy and the sound policies needed to achieve these aims could emerge.

faarxiyoxasanThat is not surprising because the parent organisation Al Islah was itself a jumble of ideas and had within it tribal elements with powerful influences particularly in Mogadishu. Mainly because many middle ranking apparatchiks of the defunct United Somali Congress (USC) guerrilla movement, disappointed with their earlier leadership gravitated eventually towards Al-Islah.

Another feature of Al-Islah has been its revolving door policy with the so called civil society that is organisations mushrooming particularly in Mogadishu changing seamlessly from campaigning single-issue groups to political organisations or at times community-cum-tribal leaders.

The enduring trademark of Al-Islah was however their reluctance to engage in armed activities in order to achieve political objectives, opting instead to use soft power that is funding schools and charity as means of winning influence and eventually power in Somalia.

Things however came into crisis after the invasion of the country by Ethiopian forces in 2007. The tension was such that it was no longer possible to hold the line and persevere with the groups long established principle of winning power through means other than involvement in armed conflict.

For some in the leadership of Al-Islah it was the last straw and made fissure of the group inevitable hence the establishment of faction dubbed Damul Jadiid or New blood.

The unanswered question up to now is how did such a small breakaway faction managed to reach the highest office in the country. To find the answer to that question one has to look at the current crisis engulfing the regime and the paralysis that is afflicting the state to the despair of the long suffering people of Somalia and the international community who thought they have at long last found the Holy Grail to solve Somalia’s intractable problems.

FarahThe architect of that victory and the achievement of such a dizzying heights in the Somali political structure is none other than the former Minister of Justice and Constitutional affairs Mr Farah Abdulkkadir aka Sakiin (Topaz/blade). He comes from a numerically insignificant clan . But he and more importantly his clan compensated what they lacked in numerical strength with quality of the individuals amongst them. Even during the Dervish movement headed by the famous religious and military leader Sayid Mohamed Abdille Hassan they had a crucial role punching well above their weight. Indeed many of the inner circles of Sayid Mohamed belonged to that clan because of their religious knowledge.

Having applied the finishing touches of a blueprint to secure the presidency for his friend the incumbent for five more years after the so-called Vision 2016, he discovered that there is snag. It was not in the script that a premier recruited from the Diaspora by the grandmaster himself specially handpicked from long list of potential contenders would prove to be such a nuisance to the extent that he could scupper the whole project. The president, his appetite whetted by the prospect of another term in office, was all ears and receptive to any measure necessary to eliminate any obstacle whatever the cost.

From then onwards it was a war of attrition between the two highest offices in the land. The PM having endured constant sniping and undermining of his authority discovered to his dismay that a plot to unseat him was already well underway through a parliamentary motion of no confidence. Even a date was penciled in to coincide with aftermath of the well publicized international conference on Somalia to be held in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Here was the dilemma faced by the PM, a man who looked to some insiders as a no nonsense bruiser, tough as old boots and capable of standing up to his tormentors. The choice was to wait and take whatever thrown at him lying or to take the war to the heart of Damul Jadiid. He chose the latter.

But by doing so has the PM bitten off more than he could chew?. Shifting the president’s closest ally from the department of Justice & Constitutional Affairs, a crucial portfolio for what is now known as Vision 2016, is understandable but by actually demoting him to that of the minister of livestock is a humiliation by any description. A clever policy perhaps, some argue, would have been to move him to a key portfolio like the ministry of finance and revenues. The incumbent at that department, a sympathizer if not a member of Damul Jadiid could be rewarded with another important position like that of the petroleum and mineral resources leaving expendables to be moved to fend for the welfare of Somali livestock.

PM AbdiwaliWhat was euphemistically described as a limited reshuffle of the cabinet was in practice nothing short of a declaration of war against the leader and his faction. The fury of the president and his associates was immediate and predictable. An all out conflict broke out between the two camps, a fight to the finish with no prisoners taken. This is a zero sum game with a winner and a loser; but the consequences either way will be far reaching for the country and its people.

If the PM loses the old master plan will be reinstated as originally envisaged before it was rudely interrupted with a view to securing a decade long hold on power for the occupants of the presidential palace.

The current stint at the presidency by the incumbent started off with open hostility to the concept of federalism and engaged in no hold barred assault on formation of jubbaland state in southern Somalia and the formation of southwestern State. But they suddenly completed a breathtaking volte-face and warmed to the idea partly because their arch enemy the president of Puntland Mr Gas mused loudly that if “one man one vote is not possible come 2016, it will be for the provincial states to select MPs to elect the future federal president and not clan elders”.

That was seen as manna from heaven by Damul Jadiid. The final piece of the jigsaw puzzle at long last fell into place. Winning jubbaland through the appointment of a new premier and supporting a controversial leader in south western regions is easy task to accomplish. That leaves the central regions. Here two or more friendly regional states could emerge with the right input leaving that long term irritant the Puntland State to languish in the doldrums with little influence at federal state level.

There is of course the Somaliland issue. Here the plan is simple and uncomplicated. It is accepted that Somaliland will not be part of the vision 2016 for Somalia. That allows engaging them with a merry go round of meetings in Turkey where no issue of substance is to be discussed whilst on the other hand encouraging international donors to help Somaliland with significant rebuilding and deployment programs.

But there is also the other scenario. If the PM wins and the president loses a vote of no confidence against the current government, Damul Jadiid will be history. All their conniving and plotting and building castles in the air will come to nothing. It will no doubt be the end of the political career of the old wizard at times dubbed the Rasputin of Somalia, the former minister of Justice and constitutional affairs.

The president whose creditably has already taken a hit will have his stature diminished even further and will become nothing more than a ceremonial president. Incidentally the current governing document the federal constitution envisages the president to be the guarantor of the laws of the country with little executive powers.

The PM on the other hand, having his authority substantially increased will have no difficulties completing the government’s legislative program. His advantage is his ability to work closely with country’s international partners who are propping up the fledgling Somali state.

Whatever happens at the end of this crisis Somalia will never be the same again. For one thing it has exposed the limitations of the international community in intervening to knock heads together and resolve a crisis that can potentially derail all that has been achieved so far. All the millions poured into the country to support a government that relies entirely on the good will of the international community bought them little influence when it mattered most as they tried to reconcile the bickering leadership of a failed state. The irony of it all is that those who pay for everything those squabbling individuals spend including the watchmen standing guard outside their homes in the form of African Union soldiers as they sleep inside can do very little to stop them and can only watch with dismay and disbelief.

Ali Abdulle
Email:[email protected]


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