By Mohamed Abdiqafar Haji Hussein
It is profoundly shocking and a political dilemma for the Somali people and the nation of Somalia the general election that was supposed to be conducted in August of this year, has been deliberately postponed for another two months and perhaps beyond. The government of Hassan Sheikh, miserably failed to meet its timeline. Presumably, the reason for the postponement was an indication that nothing was feasibly ready for an election to take place. Furthermore, the parliamentarians who were supposed to elect the next president were not elected in the first place. Likewise, the Hiiraan Regional Administration that has been a source of contention among conflicting parties has not been completed yet. Other regional states formed with the help of this government were mostly only one city state region and did not expand their administrations beyond these cities to function and fully take control of their region. The provisional constitu
tion was not completed either.
Despite all that, many people still thought that some type of election would take place in August. The Somali people trusted President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud to hold an election before the expiration of his government tenure of office. The president insisted so many times that there would be no extension of his government.
When this president was elected, he was welcomed by the majority of the Somali people, who were eager to have a government that could be recognized by the international community. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud also campaigned on a platform of winning the hearts and minds of voters by claiming that he did not participate in the civil wars in Somalia and instead was firmly engaged in a nongovernmental agency that assisted those in need. He promised that his first priority would be to secure the safety of the capital city, and many believed his call.
The Somali people were also tired of President Sheikh Sharif’s government and were looking for someone new. In four years, Hassan promised, he would be able to produce an election of one person one vote. He also hinted that he might not rerun for office when his mandate was over.
Immediately after President Hassan was elected, it became clear that the president had a different plan in mind. He started putting in place a plan that would ensure his reelection.
First, the president worked hard to consolidate executive power under him. He knew the reason that transitional governments in Somalia were unable to accomplish much, was the result of infighting between the president and his prime minister. With that in mind, the president searched for someone who would not mind the president exercising his executive duties.
It was reported that the president said, when he nominated the his first prime minister, Saacid, that the days when presidents and prime ministers fought, were over. Apparently, he was told, that Saacid was someone who could be manipulated as long as he was being called the prime minister. It did not take long. Even Prime Minister Saacid could not take the humiliation of someone else doing his job, and, as a result, he quit a year later. The president continued searching for another prime minister who would condone his action of undertaking executive duties until he found his current Prime Minister, Omar Abdirashiid, on his third attempt.
So far, any decision the government has reached has been based on the president’s view. The president liked to tell the Somali people to participate in decision-making, but in the end it became clear that the decision made was his. In any regional state he had a hand on in its creation, he encouraged many people to participate and vigorously exhorted them to elect their leaders of choice. Instead, they ended up the president choosing for them.
When the president declared he had failed to accomplish one-person one-vote, he invited all the regional leaders to form a forum in which they would decide which election model they would like to undertake. It is now known that the president made the final decision of adopting the 4.5 system. When that option was presented to the parliamentarians to debate its constitutionality, the president ended up making the final decision to legalize it.
Second, the president tried to build states from the top down while ignoring those that existed before his election. Instead of trying to work with the regions where there were administrations, such as Somaliland and Puntland, he started ignoring those places in order to start everything from scratch. He figured, if he handpicked most of the leaders in the regions he was about to create, he could secure his reelection. Immediately, with Jubaland State, which was in its final stage when the president was elected, he wasted a lot of time reducing it to an intern administration.
The first place he visited was the Hiiraan region, where there was no administration until four years later. However, the president has been adept at the continued entertainment of the Somali people with the concept of democracy and participation before making his final decision. Now that the creation of Hiiraan region is being debated, what people are not aware of yet is that the president is planning to declare and confer powers to a hand-picked president who is his close confidant.
He did all that with no one presenting real opposition to his dictatorial decision, even though some people expected Puntland and the International Community to oppose anything that was unconstitutional. However, that is no longer the case.
The president knew when he was elected that, as long as Puntland is under the leadership of Faroole, he would not be able to undermine the constitution. The Puntland Administration under Faroole’s leadership was the first administration to voice opposition when the president started changing the constitution and started forming states from the top down.
As result, it was reported that the president and his team campaigned for and wanted Abdiwali Gas, the current Puntland president, to win the presidency over Faroole. They knew Abdiwali Gas was someone who does not have a long-term strategy and can be pushed around. It seems now they were right since he did not see the trap the president and his team set for him to fall into. It was as simple as this. Puntland had to violate the constitution so it would not be able to hold accountable anyone else undermining constitution.
Galmudug state was asked to declare that it consisted of two districts, one being Mudug, of which Puntland claims more than a half. When the president of Puntland, Abdiwali, protested, President Hassan presented him with a deal where he would allow Galmudug to exist as it is, one and half, and as a result Galmudug would declare that it would consist of one and half district. Any reasonable person would have noticed that accepting that deal would violate the constitution but not Abdiwali. That is when the president realized that Puntland State could no longer use the constitution against him.
President Hassan was also aware that the International Community could interfere with the Somalis’ internal affairs. Last time, when President Abdulahi Yusuf resigned from the government without completing his term, it was reported that the International Community had forced him to resign. Also, when Prime Minister Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed who is popularly known as Farmajo resigned, it was said that he was pressured to resign by the International Community. However, President Hassan knew once the Somalia government got full recognition, he would be dealt with like any other African dictator and that he would reelect himself with over 90% of the vote.
The president had to go through two tests and that was by reassuring himself the international community would not interfere. The first was when the president was able to remind Nicholas Kay, the ex-UN Representative for Somalia, that Somalia was a sovereign state when Nicholas Kay attempted to force the president to not oust his prime minister. Second, it is also known that the International Community has repeated lately that it would not allow this government to claim existence once its mandate expired. Now that mandate has expired, and international communities are silent other than urging the president to expedite the process.
Now it seems there is no known active opposition to the president. The parliament is no longer effective. All regional leaders would rather have this president extend his rule. They understand that if a legitimate government is elected, the constitution might be the basis for moving forward. If that is the case, their leadership might be questioned. To avoid compromising their political future and repudiate bureaucratic miscalculations, they would rather have this government in place while they themselves consolidate their power.
If an election happens in two months and this president is reelected, it would not be a surprise. There must be an election process being cooked up in villa Somalia behind closed doors. Why else would the president want to have only a two-month extension if there is not a plan ready in villa Somalia-one waiting to be executed by the president like he did all the other times?
Also, if an election cooked up in villa Somalia happens in two months, the International Community would treat it like any other election in Africa. It would probably issue a press release in which the election process the president undertook would be condemned. A few days later, it would be business as usual. Look at what happened to the presidents of Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Uganda when they manipulated their reelections. They were condemned, followed by business as usual the next day.
However, what is known is that four more years of Hassan Sheikh cannot be tolerated by the Somali people. It is true that some areas of Mogadishu have been rebuilt and that some people have returned to the capital. But in terms of progress in the country, there has been no progress. Most of the states he created exist only in one or two cities. In terms of the security of the capital city, Al Shabab targeted attacks has increased immensely. The Somali people are no better off today than they were four years ago, and another four years of the same would be a huge loss.
Today, Somalia does not need someone who failed to produce any meaningful change over the last four years-one who still thinks he is the only one who can save the country from its current situation. The Somali people are well aware that this is why they are in this predicament.
Mohamed Abdiqafar Haji Hussein
Email: [email protected]
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