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The Gulf crisis echoes in Africa

By Leo Kabouche, Global risk insights.

Between the 20-24 of December 2017, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani travelled to Senegal, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Since Sheikh Al-Thani became Emir in 2013, Qatar’s African policy has been primarily focused on East Africa, where the emirate has established significant diplomatic relations with countries such as Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan and Kenya. However, the Saudi and United Arab Emirates-led diplomatic and economic embargo of Qatar could force the Emirate to rethink its policy toward the continent. The Emir’s visit underlines the strategic importance of Africa in the ongoing Gulf crisis.

The shadow of the ongoing blockade of Qatar was ever-present in the lead up to this six-nation tour. Although subjected to intense pressure from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the only country that the Emir visited on this to have taken a position on the blockade was Senegal, which recalled its ambassador to Doha this past June. In contrast, President Alpha Condé of Guinea – who also serves as Head of the African Union – called for dialogue and the pursuit of the Kuwaiti mediation, while Ghana surprised many observers by announcing that the country would open an embassy in Doha, even as the crisis was in full swing in November.

That said, it is still too early to point to a clear Qatari strategy in sub-Saharan West Africa, a region which lacks a dedicated department at the emirate’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Historically, Doha has shown little interest for the western part of the continent. While Qatar does have investments in sub-Saharan Africa, these were primarily made through partners already active in the emirate (such as Qatar’s partnership with French oil company Total in the Congo), or targeted banking institutions, such as Qatar National Bank’s acquisition of a 12.5 percent stake in Ecobank, a regional commercial bank operating in many African countries.

A tour without fanfare

Notably, there was no announcement during the tour that Doha would significantly invest in the region. Although a series of commercial contracts was signed (especially in the aviation, infrastructure development, education and health sectors), for the time being cooperation has been confined to provision of grants, financial assistance or concessional loans. As for a potential security partnership, it is most likely that Qatar will be lagging even further behind, given the controversy that resulted from its decision to send hundreds of troops to support the Libyan rebels who overthrew Muammar Gaddafi’s regime.

Nevertheless, the absence of spectacular announcements or major trade deals should not overshadow the symbolic force of the Emir’s trip, especially within the broader context of the Gulf crisis. The embargo has not hurt Qatar’s oil and gas industry – the emirate’s main source of funding for diversification projects – and the Qatar Investment Authority sufficent reserves to allow Doha to face the embargo for many years. However, the blockade has undoubtedly diminished Qatar’s regional influence and soft power. This creates a de facto threat to the monarchy’s internal stability, as it views its foreign policyas a means of survival in a region riven by rivalries.

This threat is exacerbated by the fact that Doha’s Emir-centric remains excessively personalized and is not solidly anchored in institutions. In this context, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani’s tour is part of a drive to shore up support for his country across West Africa, a region that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are also courting. In mid-December, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi announced that they were respectively releasing $100 million and $30 million in support of the G5 Sahel Joint Force, clearly indicating their willingness to be more involved in the implementation of the peacekeeping operations in the Sahelian strip.

Read more: The Gulf crisis echoes in Africa

Source: Global risk insights

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