By Abdul-Aziz Mohammed
For eons, the Somalis inhabited the Horn of Africa in seclusion. On one side, Somalis were protected from people-to-people invasions by the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea; and, on the other side, a harsh semi-desert which forbade conquering. Also, the few batches of fertile lands, along the two rivers in the south, the Somalis defended their territories with fierceness that dissuaded others to try. Of course, the European colonialists had invaded Somali lands with shear military armada, the result of which had been the cut up of what would have otherwise been a one contiguous Somali Peninsula into 5 slices, 2 of 5 making up Somalia.
In the not too distant future, what if there will be a very serious threat against all Somalis in the Horn of Africa? I do not mean to alarm any one inordinately, for this threat is not imminent; nor will it happen in one or two decades; but it is very real. What is this threat about, one might ask? It is about an explosive population growth of others surrounding the Somalis, which will inevitably perhaps one day erase Somalis, their language and culture from existence!
Somali neighbors have been growing by leaps and bounds. Today, Ethiopia’s population stands at about 96 million with a ranking of the 13th most populous nation in the World. Ethiopia is the second largest populous country in Africa, behind Nigeria. By the year 2030 (in 16 years), Ethiopian population is projected to be more than 210 million. By 2050 (in 36 years), Ethiopia would cross a more than 400 million population mark with a distinction of the 7th most populous nation! Get this: Ethiopia will have 1.6 billion by the year 2100—that is in 86 years. And that is only on one side of the Somali border.
Kenya, Somalis’ neighbor to the south, has also been growing at 45 million currently. By the year 2030, Kenya will have an estimated population of about 75 million. By 2050, Kenya will have about 135 million! In just 6 years by 2020, however, Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda combined will have 240 million on an inadequate total land of 1.82 million square kilometers, which includes water-based lands. There will be an unavoidable scramble for land among these five, which will have a balloon effect on Somalis along the Kenyan-Somali border.
Now, compare current and projected population growth of Somalis to that of their neighbors’, as already stated above. By the most liberal estimates of world-wide populations, all Somalis are less than 20 million today, 10.2 million of which are in Somalia proper. Projections of world-wide populations put Somalia alone at 40 million by the year 2050. All other things being equal to current status quo, other non-Somalia Somalis will more or less match that projected number of Somalia. All in all, the population of all Somalis in the Horn of Africa will at the most generous estimate be at about 80 million by 2050, against more than 400 million of Ethiopia and 135 million of Kenya by the same year.
Somalia is the only country in the world which has borders with its own ethnic Somalis. By colonial designs, borders were delineated between Somali families, which put swaths of Somali land and people in the hands of adjoining non-Somali nations, such as Ethiopia and Kenya. In terms of population growth threat to the Somalis in the Horn of Africa, look to the conditions of the 2 canary in a coal mine, sort of, Somali regions of Ogaden and N.F.D.
I am not that familiar of any noticeable migration of non-Somali Kenyans to Somali Kenyan territories as of yet, but the opposite had been true with Ethiopians, vis-à-vis the Somali region in Ethiopia, Djibouti and Somalia. Ethiopian migrants, especially young men of the Oromo lineage, are streaming daily into Djibouti and all the way to Bosasso. They follow this vector: Jigjiga to Hargeisa to Bosasso, on one side; to Djibouti to Yemen, on the other side. At one time in this last decade, there were up 100,000 Oromo migrant workers and others in Somaliland, until Somaliland authorities forced them to return back to Ethiopia. You will find Ethiopian migrants even at the border of Yemen and Saudi Arabia today, via Djibouti or Somalia.
In the Somali region of Ethiopia, for example, chunks of Somali territories had already been moved into by Oromo clans for more than a decade now. Oromo clans had moved into around Jina’ Sanni area, which is north of Jigjiga, the capital city of the region. In Jigjiga itself, land disputes between Somalis and non-Somalis had been very common for some time now—something non-existent a decade and so ago.
The Oromo as people are not known for their adventuresome spirit, unlike their Somali cousins. Traditionally, Oromos are mostly farmers whose world orbited around tilling their land, harvesting and feeding themselves and their families. With so much population growth and an acquisition of their fertile lands by big foreign agro-business in the name of development, the Oromos and others in Ethiopia, who are dominated by a young generation, flock to urban areas in Ethiopia with little or no chance for jobs. Others in the rural and urban areas have been forced to migrate to neighboring countries, such as Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, south Sudan and the Sudan—some of them to stay in these countries or to hitch a ride on a boat across seas and ocean. This is happening on a daily basis!
Folks, we have a potential real threat to our very existence. This is so big that all Somalis in the Horn of Africa as a one block in one big Somali Peninsula, under one command and control, would not at the end withstand such population Tsunami against them. That movements of non-Somali people toward the east and into Somali lands is already in effect with a drip, drip pace now which in time will form its streams, flash floods and title waves to a degree of a tsunami.
Meanwhile, the Somali people are still toying with the clan thing. What have the Somalis in Somalia been doing last 25 years? Well, there is that shameful episode of more 2 decades of anarchy, for which there is no reasonable explanation. Why the state, the nation itself, was sent to the dogs? Then there is this insistent in the north for splitting Somalia in half! Tragically, such imbecility on both counts has become of Somalis!
Somalia in 2 halves, or 2 countries out of one, has its own immediate ramifications. For instance, Somalia divided will pose a grave and immediate threat to Djibouti. A united and functioning Somalia, with well trained professional armed forces, will offer Djibouti a guaranteed brotherly or sisterly solidarity, should Djibouti ever be threatened by a neighbor. After all, Djibouti is a Somali country with a Somali people as the majority. Eritrea has already attacked Djibouti directly several times in the last decade or so. They could also destabilize Djibouti by proxy anytime, as there is an Afar minority in Eritrea same as in Djibouti.
As a response to in the event of a divided Somalia into 2 countries, to mitigate or lessen such threat against her, by improving its puny demographics, Djibouti will most probably claim the Awdal region; either by proxy or directly, for the same Somali sub clans are in both Djibouti and Awdal. In the east and northeast of Somaliland (as a separate country), the inhabitants of Sool and Sanaag will most likely also declare their own independence. This will produce a renewed clan hostilities in multiple fronts in the north and west; a new configuration of clan on clan wars in such places like in the Hawd area between Ogaden and Isaaq sub clans will most likely be ignited. Will Somaliland and Puntland go to war? Also, will Djibouti and Somaliland go to war over Awdal region? I am just asking!
Splitting Somalia off in 2 will unleash a terrible chain of events, which will pin Somali against Somali in the short term. It will make our neighbors pick us off (by their demographics) one by one with the least cost to them for trying in the medium term. First, it will be Djibouti, then the Ogaden region. Next will be Hargeisa all the way to the tip of the Horn; then N.F.D, and the rest of Somalia. Without pan-Somalia or greater Somalia, the next best chance for Somalis to defend their lands and lives from extinction by neighborhood demographics is a united, resource-developed and beyond clan identity Somalia. All Somalia as one united, which will prepare Somalis for a challenge which they had never faced in their entire history to date (a land invasion of Somalis by non-Somalis), is one and only long shot against extinction coming! Will the so-called Somali leaders in all Somali territories, especially in Somalia, heed the warnings of nature? Will they move urgently to come together and get ready for the fight for their lives, culture and land? Or will they be hard-headed in insisting on division and dissension—all ingredients which will consign Somalis (the unique people and culture in the unique Horn of Africa) to the ash heaps of history as a dead people, culture and language! What will it be?
Abdul-Aziz Mohammed
Email:[email protected]
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Reference:
Population Data via United Nations
Ethiopia Population 2014 – World Population Review
Kenya Population 2014 – World Population Review
Somalia Population 2014 – World Population Review
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